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The Forum > General Discussion > What happened to the money?

What happened to the money?

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The Australian stock exchange saw saw values of shares fall 4.19 percent yesterday.
This bought total losses from November 1 2007 to 50.9 percent.
What happened to the money? Who no longer is wealthy?
Add the fall in the price of oil, not much above one third of its peek value, who lost money there?
Add the trillions lost in Americas sub prime crisis and the massive firms that are gone , who has that money now?
Maybe its all in China as it gathers IOUs from the western world some one has it, or do they.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 21 November 2008 4:37:01 AM
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Ah Belly that is easy. The magic money fairy comes along
and voila, now you see it, - poooff, now its gone :)
Posted by Yabby, Friday, 21 November 2008 9:20:24 AM
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Yabby and I thought it was like musical chairs,

someone takes a chair away and when the music stops,

the slow one is left with nothing.... :-)
Posted by Col Rouge, Friday, 21 November 2008 9:41:43 AM
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Dear Belly,

I'm not a financial wizard, but it seems to me
that it's the same money going around ...

Someone is sitting on it, until they can make a
killing.

As Col pointed out ... musical chairs.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 21 November 2008 10:13:28 AM
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It never existed belly. All the value was hypothetical, it's only when everyone needs to cash in at the same time do you find out what the real value of a paper asset is.

"Value" is not "money" until you can cash it in.
Posted by Bugsy, Friday, 21 November 2008 10:18:10 AM
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The money never existed. It's amazing that economics professors didn't see the crash coming. Kinda makes a joke of the academic community.
Posted by TRUTHNOW78, Friday, 21 November 2008 10:52:45 AM
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How true Truthnow78.
Just look at it as a practice run for when oil supply peaks and then
starts downhill.

What many do not realise is that the current credit crunch was expected.
It was made a lot more severe because while they expected a number
of defaults, due to the terms of the loan increase in interest rates,
the combination of the increase in interest rates plus the increase
in petrol prices which in turn caused an increase in food prices, was
just too much for a lot more of the subprime borrowers.

While the lenders had insured against the expected defaults they had
nowhere near enough coverage for what eventually happened.

There were warnings about the exposure of the financial system.
The same people are now saying that when the recovery starts and the
price of oil also recovers the new economic conditions may stall at a
low level and be permanent.
There may be no recovery to business as usual.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 21 November 2008 11:56:28 AM
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"Kinda makes a joke of the academic community." speaking of things that don't exist. Economists don't represent the total academic community, anymore than proctologists represent the entire medical fraternity.

The money never existed. The stock exchange works on what people think something is worth, not what it's actually worth. Same with the 'value' of housing. The whole market system revolves around what people are prepared to pay, not what stuff is actually worth.

At one point in Holland people would kill their own mothers for a tulip bulb, such was the imaginary value of tulips. There's your fundamental problem with recently fashionable economic theory, which assumes individuals are rational despite the fact that history demonstrates otherwise
Posted by chainsmoker, Friday, 21 November 2008 12:16:20 PM
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Chainsmoker, don't forget Dennis Moore the Monty Pythonesque highwayman. He robbed the rich of their lupins and gave them to the poor.

"Stand and deliver! Your lupins or your life."
Posted by Austin Powerless, Friday, 21 November 2008 12:39:02 PM
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In Holland chainsmoker in ww2 they ate those same bulbs because they had no food.
Yes some of the money never existed, like the $100.000 my home has dropped in value, who cares? I am not selling.
But some lost very real fortunes, some do not yet understand but they too are broke.
Talking of not having lost until you sell is unwise , we may never see shares sold at last years peek again.
Some do not take this crisis seriously, we all will by this time next year.
What about those who bought a home or shares at the peek?
Or bought into oil at $147 a barrel?
We each lost real cash, superannuation for a start, Americans bought into fanny may and Freddy mack.
Banks are gone, some shares fell from $100us to a sale price of $2 us.
Soon the world will have proof not all the money was monopoly money some very real pain is coming.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 21 November 2008 2:55:52 PM
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Bazz,

The money didn't go anywhere because it never really existed in the first place.

Banks literally create money out of debt and only about 5% of the money in the world exists in cash - the rest is on bits of paper or just floating around in cyberspace. For every dollar you physically deposit in a bank, they are allowed - by Law - to loan ten dollars to somebody else (currently that's crept up to about thirty dollars so a lot of major defaulters caused a bit of a problem).

Wealth is created at the bottom of the economic food chain but money is something else entirely. Enjoy it while you can.
Posted by wobbles, Friday, 21 November 2008 3:15:56 PM
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Not quite true Wobbles,
When people work for a week and get paid, that is real money because it is a measure of time of their life.

Money generated by bank loans is only part real and the idea is for
work to be done to repay it. Then it is real money.

What is not real is interest, although you do have to work for it.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 21 November 2008 5:56:22 PM
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*Talking of not having lost until you sell is unwise , we may never see shares sold at last years peek again.*

Belly, you have to see things in perspective here. Despite
all the gloom, doom and turmoil, the sharemarket is back to
about 2003 values. Now if you had 100$ in a fixed deposit in
2003, if you spent the interest, you would still have 100$.
No different with shares.

Fact is that with cheap and easy credit, assets became
overvalued, economies overheated and the Chinese/Japanese
kept lending the US/Australia money, to keep the credit
bubble going, so that they could keep up their exports
and accumulate US Dollars by the trillions.

The Economist has said for years, that this is unsustainable,
the wheels will eventually fall off the cart, that Australian
housing values are overvalued, driven by easy and cheap credit.
etc.

So its been predicted for a long time, just nobody knew when
the bubbles would burst.

Note the companies that have crashed bigtime and its those
who overborrowed most, again unsustainable. But now that
fear has set in, hedge funds are forced to liquidate at any
price, heavily geared investors are being forced to dump at
any price, there are still a huge number of people and
funds out there, with enormous amounts of cash, ready to
buy bargains when they think that we have reached the bottom.

When we actually hit the bottom, nobody can predict but everyone
is guessing. We'll probably know what the bottom was in hindsight,
meantime we'll have a few dead cats bounces along the way.

But at some point, those with cash will pick up absolute bargains
and those forced to sell by too much debt, will be licking their
wounds for being too greedy.

The thing is, those mines are still there, those oil wells still
there, that machinery is still there, etc. Would I buy a cheap
oil well with confidence? Sure I would, as I think that in
some years time, oil will be back to 150$ a barrel, as its not
cheap to find these days.
Posted by Yabby, Friday, 21 November 2008 6:11:22 PM
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While money that went from my house value may be called paper money I had I wished have sold and spent it real money for sure.
On both sides of me, from the same vendor homes sold at the very top of the market.
12 months after I bought and for 250% of what I paid.
No mater what comes they must be paid for at the top rate plus interest, how can anyone say its not real money?
Yes phantom money is used, miss used in fact by banks and many others but some must take the loss and its yet to come for some.
Zero chance exists in this country village surrounded by other villages with for sale signs in full bloom that we will see those prices again for ten years or more.
Bigger falls are still likely, no one is inspecting houses for sale here, most are owned by city speculators who got stuck with them.
The rises, interest rates paid on investments have been extraordinary.
The falls have too.
How can we look for profits like that until we find answers for the crash?
And ways to stop another one.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 21 November 2008 6:18:53 PM
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Keep your lupins Austin. Nobody wants lupins these days. Can I interest you in this here shrubbery?
Posted by chainsmoker, Friday, 21 November 2008 6:34:02 PM
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*most are owned by city speculators who got stuck with them.*

Belly, in a market economy, you cannot stop people being greedy
and you cannot stop people making bad judgements. They will
pay a heavy price. But they are responsible for their actions,
so only have themselves to blame.

I bet you that some of those people were sucked in by seminars,
telling them to buy 10 houses on credit, life would be a breeze
and they would become rich. Why should we feel sorry for them
now? They were warned plenty of times by plenty of people.

Or the young generation Y that are shown on tv, with 50-60k$
debts on their credit cards, to pay for the latest fashions,
for overseas trips etc. They want it all and they want it now!

There are plenty of my generation (baby boomers) who did it
tough, know hard times and urged caution and lived by that.
That advice was ignored by many, who will now pay a heavy
price.

One thing that I have learned about humanity, we seem to
need pain to learn the hard way, sad but true.
Posted by Yabby, Friday, 21 November 2008 6:45:14 PM
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Bazz,
It's a hard concept to get across but the cash you hold in your hand is actually the money owed by somebody else to a third person and didn't magically materialise just because you did something.

You are thinking (quite logically) along the lines of how the system used to work and how people still think it works but it's no longer correct.

The concept of interest is what creates perpetual debt because if all the money created represents capital, then where can the money come from to pay the interest?

Check this out for some background. It's pretty long but very interesting.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279
Posted by wobbles, Friday, 21 November 2008 9:55:52 PM
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Yabby every word is how I think and I come from the same generation as you.
I was one who warned just as you said, this could not last.
One of the home owners, both sold twice in the rush to profit, even had to pay installments on credit card.
Interest on interest, and yes that family is broke forever now.
I and just maybe you, knew this would come, the crash, but that it came so fast stunned me.
It is that speed that has many talking about phantom money, the pain has not yet caught up with the reality, the money is gone forever.
Not at all eccentric I have refused to spend money I do not have, pay in cash and still have lost a lot via super last financial year, this one, and maybe the next.
Blind Freddy can see this recession is much worse than most will let themselves see.
This time next year much sooner I am afraid, we will all know how bad it is.
Greed did not only harm the greedy it took large chunks of my squirreled away 29% super that was to let me live better in retirement.
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 22 November 2008 5:17:05 AM
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Wobbles,
I am on my byte limit so I won't play that video.
The problem with interest payments is that they can only be paid if
there is growth and it is growth that in the present system is
imperative. If it is not there everything falls over.

Most money theory works on the principle of growth and takes no
account of energy. Economists think growth depends on money supply but
they are wrong, it depends entirely on energy.
The banks generate phantom money in the hope that commercial activity
will generate growth which will give that money reality.
The interest becomes a feed of real money from growth.

Energy supply is becoming limited so growth will be limited.
If energy supply falls then negative growth is a certainty.
There will be some fiddling at the edges by using energy more
efficiently, but ultimately it will exert its relentless oppression.
Some money is lost just like in the laws of thermodynamics, it
disappears into a black hole, that is known as overheads.

Anyway thats how I see it, and while the unreality of money can be
seen everywhere, never the less some of it is real.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 22 November 2008 9:48:25 AM
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Well all I know is that some eight years ago a common block of land fetched around $30K in my area, whereas today they sell for around the $200K mark.

Now I know there have been increases in the production costs associated with land development but knowone really knows just what the true value of common land is today. That is land without any views etc.

Now the real problem is that many folk have borrowed on that 'top end value' and may well be in dire straights if and when the values fall.

So in essence I guess there is no money missing as it is quite simply a 'percived value'.
Posted by rehctub, Saturday, 22 November 2008 10:05:36 PM
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The best place to see changing values has to be the Share Market.

How can a Company - without doing a thing - be worth more in the afternoon than it was worth in the morning and then be worth even less the following day?

Thanks for the link wobbles. I've seen many similar references that all tell the same story. I also like the way the US government creates money - by "borrowing it" from the Federal Reserve but somehow they never seem to pay it back. It just goes to show how phoney monetarism really is.

The world has been running on credit for decades but under the illusion it was all amazing, limitless economic growth.
Posted by rache, Saturday, 22 November 2008 11:23:29 PM
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I am finding it hard to understand why so very well educated people are not understanding the real issue here.
Yes phantom money has always been used, banks lending money that does not exist.
But the wealth exists, so too the debt.
In fact credit is the fuel for our very way of life, surely we understand it alone drives growth?
In the case of those factory share prices, those who bought at the high price must have seen growth and profit in doing so.
Those who sold at the lower price may have seen risk, some won some lost real wealth.
Paper only or is money wealth?
It just like the phantom money has real value and my $100.000 profit not taken by selling my house is real loss.
The money lost in my superannuation is real loss.
But some lost far more.
Some are yet to understand their loss.
And we all will see some reality in the coming 2 years as over priced housing brings reality closer to us all.
Without the international actions taken so far the world would be deep in a very real very long depression right now.
We may yet not be safe from just that.
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 23 November 2008 5:19:23 AM
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Ok Belly, I'll explain it how I see it, rightly or wrongly :)

I see money as just another commodity. Now take your house.
When there was heaps of money around, easily borrowed etc,
people bid up the price of houses. When there is less money
around, credit is harder to come by etc, loans are called
in on those who have overborrowed, the price of houses will
come down.

But, you still have the same house that you had before.

As you measure your wealth in $, you think that you have
lost, but your house has not changed, the value of money
has simply changed.

Thats going to be the problem with other assets too, for
nearly all depended on credit for their valuations. Now
that credit is being limited, many of those $ values will
fall. People borrowed money to buy shares etc, that drove
the market up. Those people have lost heaps, forced to
sell in a declining market, as the banks called in their
margin loans.
Posted by Yabby, Sunday, 23 November 2008 8:11:52 AM
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Once again yabby I agree with every word, I believe I have an understanding of the issues.
But had I sold the house my $100.000 would be real gain, it could have bought my dream, 4x4 and around Aussie beach fishing.
The new owners loss would be as real.
I know people who did borrow to buy shares, lunatics told them in seminars they paid to attend to do it, a month before the crash started.
My question about the money still stands, some never existed but the debt still does and for some the profits.
Todays Sydney press talked of much poorer millionaires, one lost over 2 billion three others over one billion.
It is gone, the deck of cards fell, no return to the highs is going to be seem for decades.
Yet those with cash and courage can win big in the share market as share once sold for 100,s now sell for$20 and one day not far down the track will sell for $45.
Not for a very long time$100.
My house is not cash, it is just want I wanted it to be my home.
But it feels good to own it and owe nothing so very many are in deeper than they can afford.
Not at all happy to say it will get worse before it gets better but that is fact.
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 23 November 2008 4:53:00 PM
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How can a Company - without doing a thing - be worth more in the afternoon than it was worth in the morning and then be worth even less the following day?

Rache
It's very hard to explain how the share market works but as an example there can be a series of events that trigger a 'surge' in a share price and those that my cause a 'plunge'.

Take the US car industry. One morning we hear the feds won't bail them out and the market drops in anticipation that the world is going to be turned up side down, then, we hear that there may well be a relief package on the way so the market (investers) re-gain confiedence so up goes the price, then we hear that the feds offer is conditional upon......., down goes the price again.
Posted by rehctub, Sunday, 23 November 2008 4:56:43 PM
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rehctub,
I understand how the sharemarket works but the example I was giving was fluctuations when nothing significant happens.

I consider it to be the flow of money between companies by the major players as they try to influence small incremental changes that they can cash in on, at the expense of the small investor "fodder".
Posted by rache, Monday, 24 November 2008 1:42:28 AM
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Rache “How can a Company - without doing a thing - be worth more in the afternoon than it was worth in the morning and then be worth even less the following day?”

Simple

“CONFIDENCE” (important that word, so I will type it again) “CONFIDENCE” in the future earning and growth potential of that company and a preparedness of people to invest their savings to share in those future earnings and capital growth.

The cause of the problems of today and tomorrow is a lack of “CONFIDENCE” in the future, thus those with savings to invest are dumping them into cash deposits and other avenues of investment, like real estate (check out how house prices moved after the 1987 crash) rather than risk the volatility of the stock market.

As for “running on credit”, the world always runs on credit, it is an expression of the “CONFIDENCE” of the lender in the borrowers ability to repay the debt in the future.

I recall the 2000 dot-com collapse was largely instigated by inexperienced day traders chasing glamour shares, one particular was the maker of a new mass storage media, the Zip-Drive, their shares were profitable but were being traded at well beyond any justifiable price indicated from their earnings projections or potential. A lot of inexperienced day-traders ended up being burnt.

We cannot expect a market to protect a fool from his own folly.

As for where did the money go, to the place it will return from once “CONFIDENCE” returns not only to investors but also to the consumers.

Robert Stigwood, the producer of the movie Grease and a through his record label RSO, a load of recording hits (he was an Aussie from Adelaide) said the two elements for success were
PMA and OPM
Positive Mental Attitude and
Other Peoples Money.
Money will always find opportunity and opportunity will always attract the money it needs. That is part of capitalism, people taking risks on dreams…

That is what works,

not governments erecting nightmares edifices to their own glory with taxes
Posted by Col Rouge, Tuesday, 25 November 2008 8:56:18 AM
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I would not advise rushing into housing as a hedge just yet Col.
We can be assured the real impact of the stock market crisis has not yet hit home for many.
It will.
And housing has not finished its dive just yet.
Rather buy shares in blue chip miners and risk we have not bottomed yet than miss the rises sure to come in the next few years.
Willing to bet no return to last years highs will be seen for 5 to 10 years but housing is on the way down.
Posted by Belly, Tuesday, 25 November 2008 6:29:22 PM
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The housing market and the share market are quite different in the
way that they react. In shares, people are constantly thinking
6 months to a year ahead and then acting immediately, so problems
are factored in, a long way before they even happen.

The housing market kind of lags behind. When values do drop, most
people, if they can, choose to sit and wait. Right now I know of
a whole lot of people with houses on the market that nobody is
buying at the expected prices. The fact that nobody is buying
them, is then not yet reflected in the housing market.

When people have to sell, due to banks calling in loans or other
reasons, that is IMHO when we will see housing market prices decline.

Which brings me to a point that is affecting all of us and is actually
an accounting issue in America.

If houses were valued at what somebody is prepared to pay for them
tomorrow, a few people might get a shock. But it is how the
stockmarket works.

In the US they have a "mark to market" rule. That is, banks have
to value their subprime mortgage holdings at what somebody will
pay for them tomorrow. Now buyers for these mortgages are few and
far between, so banks have to value them on their books at 30c in
the dollar or thereabouts. I gather that 75% of subprime mortgage
holders are still paying their payments on a regular basis, so
the 30c would be an extremely low valuation of their real worth.

That is making some banks show huge losses, compounding the whole
problem even further. "Mark to market" valuation, is what alot
of people are complaining about. If Australian banks had to use
that accounting method, their figures might not look so healthy
either.

Any thoughts on that one Col?
Posted by Yabby, Tuesday, 25 November 2008 10:27:34 PM
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What Happened to The Money

The money heard in this global market that another labour Government was elected in Australia and went into hiding:
Posted by People Against Live Exports & Intensive Farming, Wednesday, 26 November 2008 5:00:54 AM
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Belly “I would not advise rushing into housing as a hedge just yet Col.”

I was not advising it, I was commenting on what happened during the 1987 stock crash.

I never offer advice on financial matters here for the following reasons
1 It may well be illegal to do so.
2 I am accustomed to being paid for the advice I give and don’t do ‘free-bees’
3 and most importantly, unless one knows the background of the person receiving the advise, one cannot predict the appropriateness of options proposed.

In short, anyone seeking advise on financial matters is best to go and sit with an appropriately accredited financial mentor / analyst / tax expert / accountant / superannuation consultant who is or has time to properly understand their background and goals / objectives,

“Professional Advise” is a marketable commodity and it is usually worth what it costs and indicates the value of what you get for free.

Yabby we only ever know if we made an "investment" or not in hindsight.

In my early accountancy days I knew of one business man who ran a chemical business. He used to look at each of the new products his marketing and research teams invented and proposed for market. He would half the selling price, double the production cost and if it still made a profit, he would approve it.

The “Mark to Market” rule widely applied by Enron used, who collapsed under. It was originally designed to be used as the “exception”, in the absence of other valuation data but when used widely and consistently as the “:rule”, like Enron did, it becomes the basis of fraud.

Wearing my accountancy hat, I would demand such “valuations” be determined at the lower of cost or realizable value, that is the conservative approach but is what we must demand from “real accountants”.

In other words, you achieve any profit when you realize the sale. You don’t record a profit on a tradable item whilst it’s remains on your books (limited exceptions for non-traded “land and buildings”, held over a long time apply).
Posted by Col Rouge, Wednesday, 26 November 2008 8:42:59 AM
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I do you know, make every effort to ignore the group known as PALE.
It seems however they come to threads I am involved in, make spiteful childlike comments like that one.
With one intention, get me going, of all who post here I have less regard for the disjointed views of Pale.
If the post was not flaming what was it?
We should not however forget the thread contains questions we all have an interest in.
And even now we have not yet felt the full impact of this crisis.
Housing in my view is not a good short term investment.
Posted by Belly, Wednesday, 26 November 2008 5:56:26 PM
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Belly
I dont know what your problem is. The thread title is What happened to the money.
With reference to our own country Australia I responded accordingly.

Only yesterday Rudd told us he would have to go into the red.
This is not even a year since his taking leadership. It took us years to pay back labours huge money spending habit the last time.

Sure we have a Global problem which is more reason why we dont need ALP.

We only have to look at the States not to mention the track record of the last labour Government.

Belly this isnt a two year old kids group where we play tag teams for goodness sake.

You have time and time again targeted us simply because we have our own views.

Well here is news- that`s what forums are all about so try to grow up.

Try to debate he topic instead of personally attacking the person making the comment.

tell us why you believe I am wrong about ALP not being able to manage money.

If nothing else it should make for interesting reading.
Posted by People Against Live Exports & Intensive Farming, Thursday, 27 November 2008 4:06:23 AM
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I am aware of that post ,however I will not take the bait.
Like others who post here I long ago gave up on the group posting as PALE.
I will debate freely with most, those who oppose my politics and my love of the union movement.
But I see no point in this, it is not debate it is targeted mud slinging.
Yet again it will be me who abandons a thread that interests me rather than communicate with that group.
But for sure and certain, in time another bucket of mud will arrive in another thread I am active in.
The money?
It is gone sadly the thought that ANY ONE could blame the Australian government for the international crisis is?
Well it is uniformed at best.
I leave another thread but PALE you do more harm to your groups aims than ten thousand sheep export ships.
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 27 November 2008 4:22:46 AM
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Belly

You always respond with personal attacks when I make a comment about Government policy.

I suggest you debate the topic instead.



Of course we are aware of the global crash. Which is why I am deeply concerned it is compounded in Australia because we have a Government that has already blown out the budget.

Within ten months we are now talking about going into the red
Posted by People Against Live Exports & Intensive Farming, Thursday, 27 November 2008 10:13:26 PM
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