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The Forum > Article Comments > 'Populate or perish'? > Comments

'Populate or perish'? : Comments

By Peter Curson, published 24/7/2008

In the years to come the world will be swept up in a demographic transition never before experienced.

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Perhaps the Chinese have got it right after all. They are currently estimated to have 400,000 excess deaths a year because of air pollution. If all countries could follow the example, we could ramp up the total number of excess deaths a year world wide to something like 2 million. If we stopped treating AIDS, denghi fever and malaria, we could just about stabilise the population.

David
Posted by VK3AUU, Tuesday, 29 July 2008 10:48:45 PM
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Jon J wrote: "I have no concerns about my hypothetical grandchildren growing up in a country that is half Asian..."

Given the cultural chauvinism and racism that permeates many Asian cultures, I certainly wouldn't want my hypothetical grandchildren to grow up as a non-Asian minority in a future, Asian-dominated Australia.

"...but I do have concerns about my real children growing up in a world where spurious concerns over population decline are often used as a thin disguise for xenophobia and racialised mistrust."

Here's a thought: rather than frame the discussion in terms of a moralistic dichotomy, why not allow an open and frank debate about the actual demographic choice our country faces? After all, there is nothing inevitable about our demographic future.

Whether Australia is shaped by Australians or by immigrants should ultimately be up to Australians. If the Australian people truly want their European-derived nation to be transformed into a largely Asian society, then let them debate and approve such a radical change through an informed democratic process. And if Australians decide that they do not want their country to be transformed in such a revolutionary manner, then let them assert some control over their demographic destiny without the howls of "xenophobia" and "racialised mistrust".

To deny Australians this choice is to deny a people the right to determine their future.
Posted by Efranke, Wednesday, 30 July 2008 12:20:23 AM
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Ludwig

People are both consumers and creators. If you are saying there are immutable limits and we have reached them, fine. I just don't see the evidence for that.

I can counterpose erring on the side of caution by saying that more people equals more creativity intellectually and product wise which equals a better chance to survive the possible impending breakdown in society. Better to err on the side of population increase to ensure that extra creativity occurs and can be used. The latter point may be becoming more difficult under a profit driven system, I agree.

As to standards or quality of living, 1 bn people are starving. The problem is not that we can't feed them - we easily can. The problem is they are too poor to buy food. If we are going to identify blockers to quality of life, (in this case food for the starving) at least we need to consider the (non) distributional aspects of capitalism as one of them.
Posted by Passy, Wednesday, 30 July 2008 3:24:02 PM
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Passy,

Whatever the case with the availability of food worldwide, Rwanda and Haiti are good evidence that Malthus was right.
In Rwanda, the population tripled in the 1950-1990 period, giving it the densest population in Africa, with a 3% annual population growth rate. (Rural) population densities reached as high as 1000 people per km^2 in some parts of the country and 422 on average (not counting lakes, parks, and forest reserves) at the time of the genocide. About 50% of the land is arable, and land holdings per household averaged 0.6 hectares, when the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says 0.75 hectares would be the minimum for a nutritionally adequate diet for the family members and 0.9 hectares for economic sustainability. (See Pan African News report 4/11/00 (on Web) on 2000 Land Policy seminar in Kigali).

Michael Renner in a 2000 article for the Naval War College Review (53(4), but also on Web) claimed that the land scarcity was so bad that by the time of the genocide half of all farming was on hillsides with slopes greater than 10% and that erosion led to a steep decline in grain production from the 1980s. James Gasana, Rwanda's Minister for Agriculture (1990-1992), in an article in the Sept./Oct. 2000 World Watch magazine, presents a table showing the correlation between calories per person in the various districts of his country and people killed in massacres. Human ingenuity could not make up for the fact that there simply wasn't enough arable land per person.
Posted by Divergence, Wednesday, 30 July 2008 3:39:56 PM
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Passy, here's another article of many that demonstrates my point that the productivity increases of recent centuries have been more due to humankind's unsustainable consumption of non-renewable natural resources, especially fossil fuel.

"Eating Fossil Fuels" of 2004 by Dale Allen Pfeiffer at http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

The fact that the supposedly smartest minds in the world chose in the 1960's to change our agricultural system so that it became dependant upon a non-renewable natural resource, that is gas and oil, and then allowed human numbers to increase on the basis of the clearly unsustainable increases in agricultural productivity is sure proof that humankind, taken as a whole, is no smarter than it was two or three thousand years years ago. In fact, given the additional knowledge available to us, this may serve as confirmation that humankind has, on the whole become more stupid in recent times.

Certainly Marxism which laid claims to have been the most advanced of all politcal philosphies, did not rise to the challenge before it in the late 20th century. To the contrary, its adherents chose largely to dovetail behind eccentric ignoramuses like Julian Simon who also preached that the human carrying capacity of the planet was effectively infinite thus helping this moron to sow so effectively the confusion he has sown.

So a chance to avoid the catastrophic circumstances we now face was lost.
Posted by daggett, Wednesday, 30 July 2008 3:44:03 PM
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In his latest round of public speaking Professor Tim Flannery says we are using up 25% more resources than is sustainable. We are stealing from our children and grandchildrens' future. The earth has a population of 9 billion now but in 100 years time it will be 1 billion as diseases like dengue fever and famine wipe out those who can't get out of the way quick enough. With the polar ice caps melting its likely that the tropics will become too hot and dry to support human activity and people will farm Greenland again and Antarctica.

Look for him in the newsagent in the September issue of The Quarterly?
Posted by billie, Wednesday, 30 July 2008 7:47:45 PM
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