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The Forum > Article Comments > Is Rudd another Scullin? > Comments

Is Rudd another Scullin? : Comments

By James Cumes, published 23/11/2007

In 1929 the Scullin Labor Government won a landslide victory and took office just two days before the New York Stock-Exchange crash.

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James

Congratulations on a thought provoking piece.

I had a couple of quick tabloid type questions for you, namely, which nation you have in mind to take on the role of Germany and her hyper-inflation problems of the 30s? Also, as you forecast a reprise of the darkest, blood-thirstiest parts of human nature being expressed by arms following the anticipated economic catastrophe, who do who do you see as the inevitable antagonists in such an awful bloody thing, and, can it be averted?

Simon, Wagga Wagga
Posted by simon bedak, Friday, 23 November 2007 10:51:05 AM
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An excellent and well thought out article.

This is exactly what I've been telling to friends and colleagues for the past twelve months. Should Mr. Rudd sneak into power at this Saturdays election (and it will be close despite what the papers say), he will have been handed a poisoned chalice.

As the author states.... "household, corporation and public debt is unprecedented" and that...."Australians have continued to consume vast quantities of luxury goods, paid for by massive credit-card and mortgage debt based largely on false notions of expanding personal wealth."

How can it be that people cannot relate to history as Dr. Cumes has done? Why is it that people can be so gullible, no, stupid that they cannot see that good times do not last forever.

The one thing that Dr. Cumes did not mention is the ever increasing tightness of World oil supplies, which may well turn out to be the biggest elephant in the room of all time. At least with the last depression, cheap and abundant oil supplies helped us out of the mess we'd made. This time we won't have that luxury. This time around, we may not have a bright future to look forward to.
Posted by Aime, Friday, 23 November 2007 10:52:39 AM
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Good articles James.

When confronted with economic depression, encouraging demand and productivity is of critical importance. You were around in the "Great" Depression. How influential were the "Georgists", the Single Tax League etc, back then? Did the politicians of the day actually consider their ideas and solutions?
Posted by Lev, Friday, 23 November 2007 10:54:05 AM
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A nice piece of informative historical analysis. There have been a few good items of this nature in the past few weeks but they are hard to find in the mainstream media.
Mind you, this one has me a little depressed....
I'm just hoping that Rudd will turn out just like Howard ie. AFTER being elected his TRUE policies will emerge and we will all be saved from the kinds of scenarios so vividly portrayed here.
But I'm not holding my breath.

Regards,
Posted by Mike Melbourne, Friday, 23 November 2007 11:33:33 AM
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i've been worried the sky might fall for a long time, and have developed several disaster sketches as good as this. it's easy to be depressed when you consider the caliber of leaders and led in these degenerate days.

or maybe it's the dawning of the age of aquarius. by the time you're old enough to figure which it is, you're too old to collect on your "i told you so's".

as long as oz raises enough food to feed itself, not certain any more, as long as ozzians are able and willing to defend themselves, even less certain, then things will continue to be better here than in yer average country. rudd will manage things while they are manageable.

is america going to collapse and send the world into chaos? nope. it's going to rot, as it has been since the 60's, and be colonized by the rest of the world. there will be interesting times on the economic front, but only the environment can really threaten us.

what really scares me is even deeper than the environment. that's the ability of the human race to avoid seeing reality. very hard to cope with reality when you refuse to acknowledge what it is. oz, and every nation rich enough to insulate itself with mutually agreed lies, has it's own 'emperor's new clothes'. they are just as dangerous as global warming because they don't allow us to deal with global warming.
Posted by DEMOS, Friday, 23 November 2007 12:01:40 PM
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Dr. Cumes’ article is a resurrection from the grave of gloom and doom. If he is an economist, he is the perfect avatar of the “dismal science”. The title of his new book, “America’s Suicidal Statecraft”, illustrates clearly what a grand pessimist he is.His Cassandra like predictions about the future of the global economy entering a cycle of depression and inevitably with disastrous results on the Australian economy are totally unrealistic. And that such economic collapse, if it occurred, would have the ditto effects of the politics of the thirties on the politics of the present, is a childish fantasy.

Certainly there is a possibility that in the next few months the U.S. could go into recession and such an outcome would inevitably influence the course not only of the Australian economy but also of the rest of the world. But the free market or capitalism if you like, has ample reserves of material and intellectual resources to deal with any recession and prevent the debacle of the thirties. Dr. Cumes also forgets that the conservative road of Reagan/Thatcher that Australia was pushed on by Hawke and Keating and continued to be on that high road by Howard, brought unprecedented prosperity to the country. Only a fugitive from reality would attempt to negate this fact.

In regards to the outcome of the election on Saturday, it will clearly show whether the majority of Australians are either STUPID or LIARS. If the electorate kicks out a government that has increased prosperity and ushered into the houses of middle class Australia the luxuries that Dr. Cumes has mentioned and risk this prosperity from the economic uncertainty emanating from a union dominated Rudd government, that would be an act of gross stupidity. If on the other hand, the electorate have not been telling the pollsters the truth about their real feelings about Kevin Rudd, which is the reason why his polls have been so high, and on the day of the real poll reveal their true position by voting for Howard, i.e., for economic security, then they will exposing themselves as being liars
Posted by Themistocles, Friday, 23 November 2007 2:27:14 PM
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There is an even more interesting parallel concerning Kevin Rudd that has me intrigued. That is with David Longe, the former New Zealand prime minister.

Those with long memories may recall that in 1984, when Longe was elected, NZ was, as usual, up to its ears in debt. Longe then decided to play silly buggers about nuclear powered US warships going into New Zealand ports. The yanks in retailiation, kicked NZ out of ANZUS, and then Wall Street decided that it would be a great occasion to call in the NZ foreign debt. I can't remember exactly, but I believe that NZ housing interest rates went up to 26%, and many thousands lost their homes.

Let us assume that Labor sweep the board, winning a large majority in the Reps and even one in the Senate. In our case the outcome could be even more interesting.

In the new year Rudd proceeds to withdraw our troops from Iraq, despite American protests that it constitutes desertion in the face of the enemy.

Wall Street then decides to remind Australia of the golden rule of capitalism, and calls in our foreign debt.

(For those who do not know, the golden rule of capitalism is that the guy that has the gold makes the rules.)

Housing interest rates go through the roof, the economy collapses, and there are mass mortgage defaults.

Then, in March, at the height of the crisis, the Senate refuses supply, forcing Rudd to a House of Reps election, which puts Labor out of power for a generation.

(For those who don't realise it, the new senators do not take their place until 1/7/08.)
Posted by plerdsus, Friday, 23 November 2007 4:00:36 PM
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I wish I understood economics (sometimes).

It seems to me that after the 1929 crash, societies reorganised themselves once again around monetary economics. To be sure, economics was re-tuned somewhat to compensate for the chaos, but essentially I think it has grown to become the same monster that it was back then - and worse.

Oh, I'm not suggesting that any other "ism" will work any better in the long run. They all fail if they allow, even encourage the greediest and most corruptible people to get the leadership jobs. It seems to be built into all systems of governance. It seems to be something they all have in common.

I often wonder why, with all our collective intelligence, we have not dreamed up a system of exchange that more nearly expresses universal value - and dispenses with the idea of something for nothing - of which I confess I have been a lifelong devotee.

Must it all begin again from scratch? Is there no other way?

Maybe something based on truly scientific principles - thermodynamics is a good basis, because it tells the truth about the limits to our existence. Something that measures energy as true wealth. Something that doesn't obsessively value growth, but allows for a natural wax and wane while dispensing with the need for conflict, war and suffering.

Am I asking too much? Is it too hard?

I don't have the answer, although I lay awake at night thinking about it. Maybe it's because oldies like me only have the past for guidance.
Posted by Chris Shaw, Carisbrook 3464, Friday, 23 November 2007 7:06:31 PM
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From the north came a man called Rudd
Who was out for Howard’s blood
I’m a nice guy; my name is Kev
Vote for me, me too he said
They did but the dollar came down with a mighty thud.
Posted by Holy Moly, Sunday, 25 November 2007 10:53:52 AM
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