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The Forum > Article Comments > The new Silk Road: rail links from China > Comments

The new Silk Road: rail links from China : Comments

By David DuByne, published 2/11/2007

As energy jitters rattle the global economy, the New Silk Road of locomotives will allow a realignment of trade in Eurasia.

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All good stuff, but for the assumption that shipping will be disadvantaged in an energy constrained world. Shipping will increase as the cost of fuel goes up because the the underlying physics, and the cost, volume, profit relationships are superior to that of rail. The ocean "sea roads" are all in place and need no maintenance.
Posted by Perseus, Friday, 2 November 2007 10:23:51 AM
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yes, per, sea travel always cheaper than rail. plus, there is a good case for sail powered sea transport, supplemented by solar cell auxiliary power. that's very cheap, and green as well.

but pipelines from china to kazahkstan and iraq will transport gas and oil even cheaper, and are more reliable. for awhile, the industrial and commercial center of the world will be asia.

but fossil fuels will be gone soon enough and renewables are everywhere. national education standards are the only constantly reliable asset.
Posted by DEMOS, Friday, 2 November 2007 12:22:11 PM
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Water borne transport is the most energy efficient of all.
In addition in the last resort the modern sailing clippers now
being designed can can take over from all fossil fuels driven ships.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 5 November 2007 10:45:44 AM
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But nobody says anything about the tech advanced nuke powered ships?
Who will be the first?{cargo ships}
Can Aussie deny port access? What will NZ do?
May be not coal trains accross asia but nuke ones.
fluff4
Posted by fluff4, Monday, 5 November 2007 11:10:07 AM
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Hmmm, yes fluff4, I certainly did not think about nuclear powered ships.
Long term peak uranium is only about 40 years away and shipping may not
be able to compete for fuel against electricity generation.
Also shipping may not get a ration as they can use the wind.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 5 November 2007 11:37:46 AM
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While recognising the advantages of wind power BAZ, ie new tech, I could if pressed remind you of lots of disadvantage in wind power.
It's slower for one, the modern economy of last minute ordering and holding little stock is established, it can of course be moderated.
Forty years for nuke? have you ref? I need to read more.
thanks fluff4
Posted by fluff4, Tuesday, 6 November 2007 9:24:49 AM
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Hello Fluff4,
Let me think, it was part of an article on peak coal,
peak copper, try google on peak uranium, there has been a lot of talk
about it so something will show up.
One of the problems is that it is taking more energy to obtain the
ore as the easiest is mine first. Remind you of something ?
Just in time will definitely finish as it will be replaced with
just buy it local.
I can only see ships being used for passengers, high value goods and
some bulk goods not available locally but are very necessary.
Four weeks from Europe would be quite adequate for most things and
if not good enough, just do without.
If we still have satellites in operation then the times for sailing
ships could be better as they would have better wx knowledge.

I have just remembered something I was told about mobile phones by
someone who would know; don't expect them to keep working for too long.
Anyway interesting subject but it will come slowly I hope.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 6 November 2007 12:26:17 PM
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