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The Forum > Article Comments > 2019 will be better than expected > Comments

2019 will be better than expected : Comments

By Michael Knox, published 28/12/2018

The world economy will continue to produce healthy growth in 2019. We are ending 2018 with equities markets that are undervalued both in the US and in Australia.

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A lot of this growth comes from debt funded spending and quatitative easing that in Trump's America, knows no bounds.

Bilions poured into corporate America to increase productive capacity, has by and large, been diverted into share buy backs and higher debt funded dividends/corporate bonuses. A house of cards built way too high and about to tumble with the very first puff of economic headwind!

And the very reason Emporer Trump now wants to fire the federal chair, given this sane directer is increasing interest rates along with ncreasing economic activity.

My opinion for what it is worth, is far less optimistic than the hyperbole of the Author. And because we just don't have a leader willing to lead us into the 20th century, (let alone the 21st) the nuclear age and power prices as low as 2 cents per KwH.

And because it's the only card we have to play, that may prevent us joining the likes of the Phillipines as another Banana republic, with way too much debt, both public and private and facing the spectre of rising interest rates with debt that simply becomes unrepayable?

Unless there is a relief valve for an overstressed economy? That releif valve is the lowest energy prices in the world. And not just any energy but proven MSR thorium energy!

Why energy?

Simply because, there's an energy component in all goods and services and that component cascades up through the supply chain.

Moreover, worrysome for some conflicted pollies whose personal fortunes depend on the status quo and their pecuniary involvement with coal or coal fired power?

This statement edited and corrected by Grammerly.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Saturday, 29 December 2018 11:10:22 AM
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No it isn't! Whatever gave you that idea?
Aidan,
Everything that has been done in the name of Growth economy thus far & failed gave me that idea.
Posted by individual, Saturday, 29 December 2018 4:03:19 PM
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Individual,
I think you might be answering the wrong question. I didn't ask you why you were suspicious of growth; I asked you why you think "Profit in double figures of % is what causes economies to stall & kills local employment"?

But in response to the answer you gave, I remind you that people are responsible for what they do; what people do it in the name of is seldom to blame.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Alan B.,
>A lot of this growth comes from debt funded spending and quatitative easing that in Trump's America, knows no bounds
I think the QE's officially over. A lot of spending is debt funded but that shouldn't be a problem - the way money works, someone has to be in debt.

Trump has denied wanting to fire the Fed chair (FWIW) but he still has good reason to. Despite Trump's tariffs, inflation's still low. Far too low to justify the recent interest rate rises. They're making the same mistake that the RBA did in the Gillard era.

We are not in any danger whatsoever of turning into a banana republic; Paul Keating made various reforms to prevent that outcome, including floating the dollar so we have unlimited credit. We have plenty of cards left. And despite your usual spiel, MSR technology has a long way to go before it's commercially viable at all, let alone able to produce electricity for 2c/kWh, and that figure wouldn't be the world's cheapest anyway.

Solar power will ensure cheap energy is one of our advantages, but we will (and do) have plenty of other advantages as well.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 30 December 2018 1:25:14 AM
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I won't reply to Adians commentary and his view, you cannot have too much debt. Suffice to say we were once the third wealthiest nation on the planet and a ceditor one at that.

Borrowing always comes with cost. Namely interest payments! All of which have to be paid for somehow. And out of shrinking revenue, given recent tax reductions. And those interest payments always rise as the debt burden increases!

Adians economic recipie (whim and caprice of a madman?) has already been feild tested in Zimbabwe. And the result? A loaf of bread costing thousands of Zimbabwean dollars!

He just denies that there can be anything cheaper than his preferred solar power! And consequently rates his economic nous ahead of Ivy league Professor, economist Rbert hargreaves. who states on
Utube google tech talks, in reference to his book, Thorium, cheaper than coal, that MSR thorium could come with power prices as low as a dollar and ninety eight cents PKWH. Quote unquote.

And backed by prize winnig investigative Journalist and science writer, Richard Martin in his book, Thorium, Super Fuel, subtitled, green energy.

This comment corrected by Grammerly.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 30 December 2018 11:27:29 AM
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Alan B.,
Why do you feel the need to post lies about my position?

I have NEVER EVER advocated what Zimbabwe did. Indeed I specifically mentioned that Paul Keating's reforms (including floating our dollar, which gave us unlimited credit) that saved us from the possibility of banana republic status. Whereas Zimbabwe didn't float their dollar; instead their government kept control of its official value, but ran out of the resources to keep it at that value. At which point they devalued and repeated until eventually giving up and abolishing it.

If Zimbabwe had floated their dollar when they had the chance then despite their economic lunacy (which included declaring war on their main export industry while discouraging foreign investment) they would have avoided hyperinflation.

Do you now understand that my position on Zimbabwe is almost the opposite of what you seem to think it was?

I'll get back to economics in another post. Meanwhile:
>He just denies that there can be anything cheaper than his preferred solar power!
That's another lie of yours. I fully accept that in some parts of the world they have abundant hydroelectric power which is cheaper.

>And consequently rates his economic nous ahead of Ivy league Professor, economist Rbert hargreaves. who states on
>Utube google tech talks, in reference to his book, Thorium, cheaper than coal, that MSR thorium could come with
>power prices as low as a dollar and ninety eight cents PKWH.
ITYM one point nine eight cents per kWh.

I'm not sufficiently familiar with Professor Hargreaves's positions on economic issues to compare our economic nous. But I concur with him that it may eventually result in prices below 2c/kWh. I just don't share your assumptions that MSR thorium power is achievable immediately, not that the 2c/kWh price would be achievable straight away, nor that solar power won't be able to do the job cheaper sooner.

And I've tried to explain that all to you, but you just deny there can be anything cheaper than your preferred thorium power.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 30 December 2018 2:17:24 PM
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Paul Keating's reforms (including floating our dollar, which gave us unlimited credit) that saved us from the possibility of banana republic status.
Aidan,
Fast forward to 2018 & we have unlimited debt & being in the Commonwealth we're not yet a republic.
Pay demands for no improved enterprise in return got us here.
No amount of jargon can change history.
Posted by individual, Sunday, 30 December 2018 6:06:59 PM
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