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The Forum > Article Comments > Will the lights go out in Victoria or just industry? > Comments

Will the lights go out in Victoria or just industry? : Comments

By Tom Quirk and Paul Miskelly, published 14/2/2017

The real distortion to the system is the treatment of wind generated power.

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From the Aus:

"Turnbull’s disciplined focus on electricity prices and the unreliability of unbalanced renewable energy production is putting pressure on Labor at all levels. Mark Butler’s response yesterday, bouncing off Australia Institute and Fairfax Media claims that Turnbull had ignored “confidential” advice and set up a false narrative, was knee jerk, superficial and wrong.

While Labor tried to distract the Coalition about preference deals with One Nation, housing affordability and welfare cuts, the climate change spokesman accused Turnbull of lying about the cause of the blackouts. With the added hysterical hyperbole of doing so while people were risking their lives in the field.

But his argument, built on the morning media’s misleading momentum, didn’t acknowledge that Turnbull and Josh Frydenberg had always said the blackout was caused by the effects of a storm.

It didn’t take an FOI request to work this out — AEMO has written three public reports, with a fourth due next month, in which it is spelt out in great detail.

As Turnbull has said, the real issue is that SA’s vulnerability to extreme weather blackouts is a result of an over-reliance on wind and solar.

AEMO’s public findings, after months of study, are that the “growing proportion” of renewables is leading to longer periods of low availability of power and “lower resilience to extreme events”. The third report highlights measures required to change how “the power system responds to extreme events”.

It is the end result — which AEMO sheets home to the intermittency of wind farms — that is the real issue."
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 9:06:54 AM
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They say one good deed deserves another. Now it seems one subsidy creates another if we have to pay thermal plant to remain on standby. For coal or steam based gas plant that will mean burning fuel and creating emissions in order to keep the boilers hot. This will be a perverse result of those who insisted that wind and solar would make big inroads into emissions and cost.

The obvious answer is to remove the 'must take' status of intermittent generation due to the penalty backed quota and the economics of the generous green certificate subsidy. Now we see at least one electricity reseller will pay the $65 per Mwh shortfall charge rather than buy $85 certificates. Again the green dreamers didn't see this coming.

Perhaps no state or region should get more than about 20% wind power. We can't stop people installing solar at home provided it doesn't impose costs on others. The intermittent percentage 'sweet spot' will be found as a result of undistorted economics. In my opinion nuclear should replace coal baseload but a vocal minority can't seem to grasp that idea.
Posted by Taswegian, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 9:52:10 AM
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Why not use our huge latent resource of nuclear material to generate base load power? Then our renewables could be a valuable additional generator.
Posted by Ponder, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 10:01:36 AM
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Thank you for the article. Obviously it took a bit of research and some of the graphs are quite telling.

However there was one important factor missing, the high price of domestic gas which is severely denting the capacity of gas fired power stations to compete in the energy market. The US only recently eased restrictions on the export of oil and gas from their country. They rightly took the position that allowing energy to be exported would cost jobs, and raise the cost of production and therefore directly impact competitiveness.

Here in Australia we did not such thing. As a result our local prices have soared from $3 to $4 to $6 to $7 sometimes fetching nearly $20 per GJ. A country with one of the most abundant gas resources now faces shortages.

These inflated prices mean plants like the Point Piper no long deem it economically viable to have both generators going full time thus removing base load capacity from the system.

“A 2012 report from NIEMIR claimed that for each dollar gained from gas exports $21 in economic activity was lost.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-01/gas-prices-higher-in-australia-than-in-export-destinations/7680106

We need to stipulate that at least 25% of gas production be reserved for domestic use. I know this is unlikely under a government so wedded to laissez faire capitalism, and that they and their rusted on minions will instead blame renewables, but ultimately we desperately need leadership on this issue.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 10:22:56 AM
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Good article guys.. just one point. You mention the term semi-dispatchable at the end. My understanding is that wind farms over a certain capacity are classified as semi-dispatchable meaning that the grid operators have the option of not accepting its electricity if acceptance would create grid problems. Can't be turned on but can be kept off.
Posted by curmudgeonathome, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 10:35:20 AM
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Electricity in all states should be taken back by governments. There is no place for profit taking a price gouging (particularly by the Chinese) when it comes to essential utilities. Back to coal and to hell with RETs and rent-seekers.
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 11:15:02 AM
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What a typically green blob bureaucratic post from our resident blob member.

First dictate that we must use the highly damaging wind power.

When that causes the warned catastrophe, dictate that we can't sell our gas to the highest bidder. We must keep it here, & sell it cheep, to overcome the problems caused by the first dictate.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could just drop all this waste of money trying to please these fools, & let the market do what it is good at.
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 11:53:45 AM
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The closure of Hazelwood Coal Fired Power Station in late March 2017 will be followed by people freezing in Winter (June to August) 2017.

That is, many old, poor and disabled residents of South Australia and Victoria will suffer no heaters as no-coal-fired electricity blackouts increase.

Renewable wind and solar farms have already proven their capacity inadequacy in Summer.

Goodonya LABOR and GREENS political morons of South Australia and Victoria and the ignorant voters who invited them in.

I reckon voters should vote Liberal, Conservative or further to the right for policies to shift the renewable subsidise to construction of new coal fired power stations in South Australia and Victoria.
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 11:58:24 AM
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How private enterprise works, if you can keep the green blob, Labor & their bureaucratic mates the hell out of it.

Many years back a mate of mine's father, Joe, was a truckie. He'd developed a good business with a fleet of trucks, carrying coal from the mines around Lithgow to the rail head.

When the mines started to become uncompetitive & started to close, he was losing his trade. A couple of young engineers were claiming they had an idea for a new technique that would make them profitable, but no owners would try it.

Joe bought a couple of the closed leases & invested in the new technique. It worked, the mines were viable, & the trucking profitable.

Those engineers developed further improvements, the mines became quite profitable, & the engineers with Joe made a lot of money exporting their mining techniques, as well as the coal all over the world.

Then an entrepreneur sold oilseed to Asia. He contracted farmers around Lithgow to grow the stuff, & he needed someone to tranship it from farm to rail. My mate & I, contracted to do this, using some innovative transhipment techniques developed by his dad's company.

We sold out of it after a couple of years, too busy with other things, but 30 years later the coal is finished, but the oil seed business is thriving.

What would the left have done? Subsidised the mines, & made utilities buy overpriced coal, what else?
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 12:40:44 PM
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Dear hasbeen,

You really do give me a laugh you curmudgeonly old coot. Terribly weak on math and physics now showing a similar ignorance with economics.

The price of gas did not go up because we have wind energy but because of demand from countries like Japan and China.

Anyway back to the US.

So the country most wedded to free market ideals protected its manufacturing by blocking oil and gas exports for over 40 years and you have just decided it was a waste of money and that they were all fools?

Basically you are more than happy to see the abundance with which this country has been so blessed with dug up by mainly foreign owned internationals and sold overseas rather than benefiting Australians? Why can't we regard you as anti-Australian? Perhaps even traitorous? If you are so enamoured with the 'market' then I normally would have suggested you emigrate to the US but even they don't measure up to your high-minded ideological stance. You are just another elite pushing a discredited ideology down the throats of ordinary working Aussies.

Is that yacht of yours still in service? I think the high seas might suit you better. It would certainly mean the ratio of those who care about Australian jobs and our nation as a whole would improve.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 12:46:11 PM
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You can always tell a Victorian, but you can't tell them very much!

These fruit loops couldn't organise a round of drinks at a brewery! (thanks Pete) And would be a bankrupt going somewhere to happen if tasked with running any manufacturing based enterprise!?

And not helped by the financial/economic absurdity that is the tail wagging the dog, green's secret agenda, wish list!

I don't know about the lights going out, but we can be assured the lights will be flashing on and off, more off than on?

It's time to stop thinking solely about staying in power, but rather what the country and its people need!

And that's surety of supply and affordability! And eminently doable!

We also need jobs, jobs, jobs! And spraying the airwaves and ether with spittle laden bombast, isn't going to do anything except create a few more cerebral hemorrhages as folks who've had up to here, go into melt down and go ballistic!

As always pampered and privileged beyond measure, self serving politicians and oddly, public servants rarely if ever, have to suffer the consequences of the most daft decisions ever foisted on us by experts! X being an unknown quantity and a spurt, merely a great big drip under pressure!

If the last heatwave, catastrophic fire conditions and consequential loss of life and property Hasn't convinced these numskull to go nuclear, then what eventually will?

The destruction of an entire town? Another Canberra catastrophe?

And we don't have to opt for the technology that creates bombs or bomb making material or enormous toxic waste, but rather the type that ameliorates against any and all the above!

This current diabolical stuff up, is what you get when Tweedledum is in charge? and expect even less sane decision when we hand the reins to Tweddle Dumber, as per usual! (inmates in charge of the asylum)

If these folk shared a brain, it'd be lonely. Even then you could put it in a thimble and still hear it rattle!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Tuesday, 14 February 2017 12:50:56 PM
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Re "These fruit loops couldn't organise a round of drinks at a brewery! (thanks Pete)"

No worries Alan B. :)

Or a r--t in a brothel!
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 2:17:06 PM
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u can be sure that when the lights do go out in Victoria like in SA that the renewables high priests will be in denial and baffle the gullible with excuses. They will continue to pig headed bang on about gw and ' dirty' coal while the elite enjoy all the benefits. Hopefully enough ' deplorables' will wake up to the deceit of the renewable industry and its outrageous costs and unreliability. No wonder people are turning to One Nation.
Posted by runner, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 2:31:36 PM
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SR,

The problem with the ABC article is that it fails to discriminate between the bulk price sale off shore and the retail prices after the network costs.

Blocking exports is essentially forcing the gas suppliers to sell their product below market price. That would enable them to claim compensation from the government. There is plenty more CSG available that could be developed at much lower prices.

Finally,

The gas plants could supply the power, but at higher prices. That is why closing coal plants is so stupid without developing low cost alternatives.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 2:52:46 PM
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The gas that comes out of our ground is our gas! And the natural cost of supplying ourselves with our gas is the natural cost of drilling the holes, building the heat exchanger/storage facility and the natural cost of pipes that carry it to our homes etc!

No government ever had a mandate to alter that by privatizing our gas industry, and in so doing, upping the price overnight by 400%! Given, it's always paid contractors, who drill the holes, build the storage facilities or lay the pipes that carry gas to our homes/wherever we need it!

And the only thing in prospect, quick enough to fire up, when the renewable intermittent systems fails!

As our own resource, we should reserve some of it for ourselves; and to power our industries! Not sell it off to the Lowest bidder without so much of by your leave, Hasbeen!

First we lose the jobs, then the possible export incomes; and the taxable revenue we retain by retaining manufacture. And self evidently, purloined by patent stealth and subterfuge by pompous, popinjay, pernicious political personalities, signing away our national heritage and our economic, energy dependant, sovereignty!

What we needed was quite massive modernization and rationalization. Not piecemeal manufacture by a dozen companies, just to create a single saleable product, that then has a dozen tax and shareholder dividends and debt burdens built in; and reflected in the non competitive end price!

As indeed is the ever cascading energy quotient costs! That has now exceeded labor costs! Not helped by our, piecemeal, all over the shop, manufacture/assembly processes!

While that may be the order of business in the union hierarchy? There's no place for inhouse (secret) political agreements that define our permitted role/place in the pecking order/chain of command? And must be replaced by vastly more accountable transparency.

At the end of the day, we maximise the profits of our energy products (ours) by sending off shore as manufactured or processed goods that have an essential, built in, energy quotient!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Tuesday, 14 February 2017 5:30:35 PM
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"The gas that comes out of our ground is our gas! And the natural cost of supplying ourselves with our gas is the natural cost of drilling the holes, building the heat exchanger/storage facility and the natural cost of pipes that carry it to our homes etc!"

No, "selling" our gas to ourselves at less than world parity pricing is a cost of gas fired electricity production. We pay for it one way or the other.

Renewables plus gas is no solution for CAGW, only a sensible staging point for an assault on the problem while hoping for a scalable, affordable storage miracle, a whimsical nonsense pathway up a dead-end.

Clean coal is an oxymoron and scalable, affordable carbon capture is as much a chimera as storage.

Renewablistas are becoming more shrill and in denial as the truth gradually reveals itself, yet the N-word dare not speak its name as we go through the throes. Its time will come if Finkle can get off the Kool-Aid.
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 6:29:04 PM
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I think Graham Richardson (ex labor cabinet minister) summed up the issue well:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/labors-ignorance-on-electricity-affordability-is-paving-the-way-for-electoral-massacre/news-story/0bde7bf335227a033a2d8fb9f27fbb39

"Watching Question Time in the House of Representatives on Tuesday was, for me, as alarming as it was tragic. Mark Butler, Labor’s Shadow Minister for the Environment, asked the PM a question on the supply of electricity in NSW. Butler’s point was that power was cut to homes and to the Tomago aluminium smelter in a state which overwhelmingly relied on coal power and not renewables. The Opposition, front and back bench alike, roared their encouragement and support. I was alarmed because this open display of ignorance and stupidity by Labor paves the way for electoral massacre by an unworthy government which will be able to run a real scare campaign on the reliability and affordability of our power supply.

The tragic nature of it came as I watched Labor members, lemming like, queuing up to go over the cliff. The PM easily swatted away the Butler question like a man revitalised by finally having a policy to push that he knows may well over time restore his and his government’s standing and reputation. Surely Butler and his mates are intelligent enough to know that the only thing demonstrated by the heatwave in NSW was that there are not enough coal-fired power stations operating.

No matter how much pressure from the Left Bill Shorten is frightened of, he must assert real leadership on this issue. Government is achievable and it would indeed be a travesty if dumb ideological adherence to a renewables policy doomed to fail brought Labor undone. If Labor took this weapon away from the PM’s hands, victory will be within its reach."
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 6:43:10 PM
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Labor has been dragged left and looney on electricity generation, but so has the general public, particularly the young, who have swallowed the Kool-Aid.

Fantasy has won many an election, with the message that more, rather than less renewables, will solve stability and supply problems and spawn magical industries. The idea that scalable, affordable storage is just around the next corner has been adopted as an article of faith after being said so often by so many politicians divorced from science.

Perhaps it is the SA renewablistas' strategy to ensure enough grid instability to encourage wealthier homes and businesses to seek expensive battery back-up, firstly, then perhaps attempt going off-grid. All very well, but pity if you're poor or a business needing cheap and stable enough electricity to compete with the rest of the world.

We are TUSCWP.
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 8:48:17 PM
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no... that's USCWAP.
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 9:25:34 PM
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All are invited to join the long queue.

"SOLAR + HOME BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE
The second residential solar revolution has begun – home battery energy storage. Affordable solar + storage has arrived on our doorstep and Energy Matters Australia is ready to welcome it!"

http://www.energymatters.com.au/residential-solar/battery-storage/
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 14 February 2017 10:04:14 PM
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No thanks plantagenet. I lived on my yachts for 12 years, & tried it all. Wind, solar, a dragged propeller & you can have them all. A diesel generator is the only sensible alternative.

You should hear my brother in law, an engineer, give his opinion on batteries & solar panels, after 7 years living with them on his remote property. He is not alone. I don't know anyone who has lived long term with solar panels as their main source of power, who does not curse the things loud & long.

We lost power just before our roads went under in the last flood. Five days trying to keep food cold with my little 1.6 KVA gen set convinced me.

I bought a 10 KVA 3 phase remote start genset that can do the job. Not only that, storing a few hundred litres of diesel is much easier, & more practical than trying to store enough electrons to run a property in any sort of battery bank.

I ran the place for 6 days on it as a test. It was only slightly more expensive than the grid. Converting to 12V for lighting, & a few other things could improve that further.

I could live with it, but would much prefer the convenience of grid connection, it is so clean & simple. However with the proven stupidity of politicians, in mind, I am now prepared.
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 12:32:15 AM
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Thanks Hasbeen

For some enlightening comments on home solar.

Seems most reviews from the relatively rich buying solar+batteries do not include much reporting of their multi-year performance.
- a bit like buyers of luxury German cars rarely reporting the fact they are far less reliable than Japanese or South Korean cars.

Still, maturing solar+battery technology may become a cheaper, more reliable, proposition (especially in northern and inland-country Australia) as the cost and blackouts of grid electricity escalate!

Also oil/diesel prices for generators may become prohibitive in a couple of years as petrol prices return above the $1.50 level.
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 10:49:55 AM
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Here's Finkel on storage.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/energy-storage-one-of-australias-big-opportunities-finkel-78857/

"There are challenges in bringing them online, but over time, the solutions will come – just as we have learned to harness new technologies before.........."

Yep, affordable, dispatchable 24/7/365, grid-sized solutions will surely come, if we just believe and put our minds to it. Simples!

Lalalalalalala... What chance have we with ideologues like Finkel at the helm?

Maybe I've got it wrong and the role of the Chief Scientist is not to think clearly through the options before us, but to imbue Australians with wow and wonder. All part of "smarter" Australia while our results in science and maths crash against world standards.

Meanwhile countries who know what they're doing are going nuclear for main-grid supply. Nuclear has massive scope for further technical development, and Australia could be just as much in the forefront of that as it could be in off-grid renewables.
Posted by Luciferase, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 11:07:18 AM
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Dear Luciferase,

You wrote;

“No, "selling" our gas to ourselves at less than world parity pricing is a cost of gas fired electricity production. We pay for it one way or the other.”

Depends on who 'we' are. Certainly there is the cost of reduced returns to shareholders, many overseas, but if for businesses and homes being supplied in Australia it would be a saving. They would not be paying for it 'one way or another'.

I am more than happy for you to have an ideology against renewables but perhaps sticking to facts would be helpful.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 2:17:14 PM
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SR,

The single problem with your idea to plunder the gas companies after they have spent $bns developing an export market is that the companies have a right to sue the government for loss of profits.

The end result is that they will still be getting the same amount per unit of gas, except that the difference will be made up by the taxpayer.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 6:01:50 PM
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Further to SM’s point, were Australia to mine its own gas as Alan B. suggests, there is a cost to that and a forgone royalty payment from a private miner. This is a part of the cost of burning gas.

I am not "ideologically" against renewables on the main grid, I'm economically and scientifically against them.

The infrastructure that supports them, including the fossil-fuelled full and partial backup requirement, means they fail to impact on CAGW.

Now I know I’m being unfair because everyone knows that storage capable of making renewables dispatchable 24/7/365 is just around the corner. Green politicians told us so.

Were there a existant a scalable, affordable storage solution, I'd be the first to get on board the dream. But there isn’t, and simply believing there will be is stupid and dangerous.

I am totally against wasting a single dollar on a non-solution. We have at hand something that has worked for over half a century, so we do not need to embark on fantasy.

SR, if you think you know something no one else knows on the storage front, share, but in all likelihood it has already been found wanting. The scale of such an enterprise, let alone cost, has to be appreciated first. Do you at least concede that storage is THE central issue surrounding any renewables approach to CAGW, not whether enough energy can be harvested?
Posted by Luciferase, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 7:56:19 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

So you are claiming by putting a 40 year ban on energy exports in order to ensure energy security and keep cost down for US businesses the successive administrations cost the their tax payers more than without such a ban?

Prove it.

As to businesses being able to sue governments for exercising their sovereign right to protect their economies and their citizens this is something your side of politics was so keen to sign up to with the TPP.

It is elitist, it is serving international corporations over local businesses and consumers, and it is ideological free market codswallop.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Thursday, 16 February 2017 11:00:50 AM
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SR,

We were both previously discussing Aus not the US.

Secondly the Oil companies in the US are allowed to charge internally the same prices as imported Oil, and considering that the US was until recently a net importer of energy the ban was a non issue.

Thirdly, your segway into the TPP is an admission that you have lost the main argument, however, anyone with a smattering of economics understands that:

1 Businesses drive the economy, create jobs etc not government
2 Populist driven government forays into the market economy almost invariably create far more misery than they solve.(e.g. the live cattle debacle)

Contrary to you claims the TPP did not grant companies unlimited opportunities to sue the government, but simply laid down the parameters within which governments could reasonably act to create an environment conducive to investment employment and jobs.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 16 February 2017 2:14:42 PM
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If the cost of gas could be lowered the emission reductions achieved would be of little consequence wrt CAGW, so getting all hot and bothered about it is a sideshow.

If an affordable, scalable storage system miraculously presented, the EROEI of a manufactured renewables+storage system would still be so low as to require preposterously massive infrastructure to both maintain itself and deliver the growing needs of first world civilization.

EROEI is a proxy for CO2, ie a low EROEI means nearly as much CO2 is produced in manufacturing the infrastructure as is saved from being emitted during its working life as a replacement for coal-fired power. Utopia is reached when the renewables+storage system eventually breeds iself, leaving coal behind. So much has to go miraculously right for this to happen, starting with an astonishing storage discovery.
Posted by Luciferase, Friday, 17 February 2017 12:22:03 AM
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Margaret Thatcher once famously said, that "Socialism could never work, because sooner or later, the Socialists run out of other people's money to spend."

If she was alive today, she would probably say that "Socialism could never work, because sooner or later, the Socialists will run out of other people's coal generated baseline power to use."

Ever since Socialism's inception, the one fact about it which is as immutable as the Law of Gravity, is that they are so convinced that market forces equate to dining with the Devil, that they just can't run an economy. It is just incredible that each succeeding generation has to learn the same lesson over and over again. The only good thing that will come of this is that once again, the Socialists are going to be hurled from power in those left leaning, blacked out states who were stupid enough to believe the socialist promise, that voters could vote themselves money. And electricity.

Ten years from now, the next generation will have to relearn the same old lesson.

The most incredible aspect of the Socialist mindset, is that they utterly despise the money making means of gaining the finances they need to buy votes. They don't just want to exploit the Golden Goose, they really do want to kill it. And when it is dead, and they no longer have any means to buy votes, they blame those people who cherished and nourished their own Golden Geese, and demand that they share the golden eggs with them.
Posted by LEGO, Friday, 17 February 2017 6:17:06 PM
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Solar and storage seem to go together.
Unit dwellers in those blocks that are everywhere these days do not
have the option for solar cells.
There is a large difference between off peak and peak rate charges.
I have not seen any mention of using the grid to charge a battery at
off peak times and using the battery at peak times.
That should be a simple calculation to find pay back time.
Anyone looked at that ?
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 20 February 2017 2:30:46 PM
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