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The Forum > Article Comments > Everyone is guessing when it comes to oil prices > Comments

Everyone is guessing when it comes to oil prices : Comments

By Nicholas Cunningham, published 12/3/2015

Lower prices should push up consumption, but how quickly and how fervently consumers respond will go a long way to determining when the glut will subside.

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Yes, particularly speculators losing their shirts! HOORAY!

That said as long as supply continues to exceed demand, the price will fall further.

And those who own the oil have little choice but to flood the market as long as it lasts; given the new level of independent competition; and threatened competition, from a host of other sources!

Like the recently discovered Edmonton reserve of 1.7 trillion barrels, and technological innovation that now allows it to be easily accessed!

And other innovation, like pad and horizontal drilling that keeps shale oil in the game at current prices!

Besides, the developed world has had a bellyful of a few rouge suppliers holding them by the short and curlies, and using oil as an economic weapon! Or the speculators, who to date have profited from that!

A practice which can work in reverse now, thanks to the new supplies/surplus.

We also may have a hydrocarbon reserve to our immediate north, to rival or eclipse the M.E., that international activists have manipulated our less than intelligent pollies to list or otherwise effectively lock away!?

Both China and the USA are virtually awash with NG, and there are a number of other alternatives, we have yet to try; like endlessly sustainable hydrogen made more affordable than any current oil product, thanks to the catalytic cracking of the water molecule!

Which if made using sea water and solar thermal heat, should produce hydrogen for just a few cents a cubic metre!

And only just around the corner from the day the world decides they've been played for gullible fools long enough! The stone age didn't end for lack of stone!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 12 March 2015 11:41:22 AM
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Nicolas's article certainly reflects the popular expectations, ie a
return to higher prices somewhere around the end of this year.
However Gail Tvberg proposes an alternative view that this may be a
permanent low price.
She postulates that the price is low and will stay low because of
diminishing returns.
The cost of search and development is getting too high.
This would be a major recasting of the traditional peak oil scenario
that expects high prices at peak oil.

http://tinyurl.com/l8dwxko

I think she may have a point. We know that The ERoEI of oil is down
around 10 which is getting down there with wind and not a lot better than solar.
It explains why the politicians seem unable to grasp that there is
a crisis poking its head over the horizon.
Production of everything is going ahead fine but governments seem
unable to get to a point where they have enough of our money.

It is now clear that peak oil is now in the rear vision mirror.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 12 March 2015 5:34:08 PM
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