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The Forum > Article Comments > Why oil prices must go up > Comments

Why oil prices must go up : Comments

By Nicholas Cunningham, published 24/2/2015

It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil.

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Rhian - I don't disagree with what you say, but the deep oil will still be more expensive than the easy lift stuff which is supposedly (note the supposed) running out..

Taswegian - the general trend on energy return is probably right but I thought the return on ethanol was actually negative.. the 5 figure for Canadian tar sands seems suspiciously low. I don 't think they'd do it for that.. what's the source..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Wednesday, 25 February 2015 9:26:39 AM
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The articles author is basically correct.
There is a famous graph that shows oil discovery and production.
The year of highest discovery was 1964 and it has all been downhill
since then except for a few bumps.
The production curve crosses the discovery curve in 1983.
Think about that, we have been on borrowed resources since 1983.

I wish we could show graphs in our replies.

There was a paper by someone I cannot remember about the oil companies
return on search and development investment.
They are on a beating to nothing and there is only one way out.

Curmudgeon, an RMIT Prof published some figures for EROEI for oil and coal.
I have it here somewhere but it was this from memory;
ERoEI
OIL COAL
1930 100 80
2010 10 30

Now that IS something to worry about.

I don't remember Oil Sands, better known as bitumen sands being as
low as 5, but it was quite low perhaps 8 to 10.
At 5 they will not bother coming back.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 2 March 2015 3:24:36 PM
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