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The Forum > Article Comments > Cyclonic inflation > Comments

Cyclonic inflation : Comments

By Jennifer Marohasy, published 23/2/2015

Cyclone Marica was not a category 5 cyclone and the Bureau of Meteorology needs to be investigated for the distress it caused millions of Queenslanders.

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GrahamY, I made no claim on Jennifer's expertise in biology, I am not a biologist and therefore can make not judgement about here capabilities. I will however continue to point out that she is not a climate scientist. I will also point out that she should do the same, and question her motives when she talking outside of her field of expertise.

I also pointed everyone to the actual document she was referring to.
Posted by Cobber the hound, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 12:37:38 PM
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I think Cobber is a bit confused.
You do not have to be a climate scientist to dispute their findings.
I am looking for a simile. If a scientist in a subject makes a
statement about his conclusions, then someone has an experience that
contradicts his conclusion, why shouldn't he say so ?

Also many skeptics are scientists in other fields that can see
contradictions to their own field.
Should they say nothing just because they are not climate scientists ?
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 3:27:24 PM
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All this has nothing to do with the fact that this was nothing like a cat 5 cyclone, & you don't have to be any scientist to see that.

The UN have called it a cat 3.

The US navy have admitted that their models got it very wrong, & that it was a cat 3. I believe theirs is the same faulty model that the BOM used.

Blind Freddy can see by the damage anywhere that it was no more than a high cat 2 when it crossed the coast.

Why does the BOM insist in continually calling the thing what it was not. Is there any other description for this behaviour than lying?

Their forecast was entirely wrong for the effect after it continued south. The 75+mm forecast for Beaudesert produced under 15mm. Yet another proof that their models are basically useless. They can't even get the next few hours anything like right.

They are looking more like tits on a bull as time goes by.

All this defence of the indefensible is sounding very like people who know their own discipline is on pretty shaky ground, & are practicing solidarity with their academic brethren, hoping for reciprocal support when they are found wanting.
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 4:18:53 PM
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I have read as many forums/comments about TC Marcia as I can find. I can't say from this that the evidence is solid one way or the other for its rating at landfall - there is data to support Cat 5 as well as Cat 4 and even Cat 3. But one thing that is clear is that it was a small and intense system. Windspeeds are claimed to have been highest on its eastern flank and somewhat variable over small distances, so it is possible there were gusts to Cat 5 in some areas close to the eye.

However, everything I am reading supports the idea that it was substantially weaker than Cat 5 as it headed overland and was likely Cat 2/3 at Yeppoon and Cat 1/2 at Rocky.

The issue to me is not what it was at landfall but the idea that is out there that it was a Cat 5 at Yeppoon and even Rocky. Yes if you listened or looked closely a downgrading was noted on the day, but the media has left everyone with the impression this was a monster storm all the way through.

Surely BOM should communicate this to the public so that people aren't under the misapprehension that Yeppoon and Rocky were struck by a Cat 5.

And given the uncertainties that many have expressed about the likelihood it WAS a Cat 5 at any time, it'd be nice to see some solid data to support that contention one way or the other. The only actual data I can find says it was not.

The best discussion I have seen is at Weatherzone, well worth reading the last 10 pages of this discussion.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1307826/100
Posted by Graeme M, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 7:08:58 PM
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Does anybody have access to the relevant figures for Middle Percy Island?

Currently the observations for Middle Percy Island on Friday to Sunday are missing from
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW4145.latest.shtml

I've not seen enough evidence to have a strong opinion either way about this particular event but I do think if BOM got it wrong they should make sure that is widely known.

As others have pointed out there are very real dangers if people think that what they experienced was a higher category than it actually was. Decisions to seek alternate shelter might well hinge on a view that a dwelling stood up to a Cat 5 event when it has not actually done so.

R0bert
Posted by R0bert, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 7:51:03 PM
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I think that is your answer RObert. The reason they have gone is to minimise the BOM embarrassment. I believe Jennifer gave the details from the site, & recorded them, expecting they would disappear.

Robert I have lay ahull in a 40 Ft yacht in a low cat 2, sailed a 6o ft. ferry through a moderate cat 2, in the fairly sheltered water into Shute harbour & hidden up mangrove creeks from a couple of moderate to high 3s.

I have cleaned up the damage from one of those 3s & also from a high cat 3, & believe me, Yeppoon saw nothing like a moderate 3. Dig up some photos of Cardwell & Tully heads & you will then know what a high cat 3 would have done to Yeppoon.
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 24 February 2015 10:26:38 PM
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