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The Forum > Article Comments > Hong Kong protests: cruising for a Tiananmen? > Comments

Hong Kong protests: cruising for a Tiananmen? : Comments

By Peter Coates, published 1/10/2014

Direct defiance of Beijing could be fatal for protesters - but they are hoping and expecting that the international media and Hong Kong's special economic status will dissuade the authorities from cracking down too hard.

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Its HUGE!! http://youtu.be/Q0Cs5P7oP80
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 10:50:53 AM
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I just don't think so.
You see Beijing, has to remain cognizant of Taiwan, and their plans to incorporate it into a wider China; and without spilling significant blood or creating bankruptcy/WW111.
All of which would very much jeopardize their positions, or even force the party out of power! (see Russia)
And if they won't or can't live up to the agreements made, when reincorporating Hong Kong, they may find that actually incorporating a WATCHING Taiwan, an impossibility!
And combine that with local unrest, and a productive south, (the rich half) that reportedly wants to (cut the apron strings) break away from mother?
Beijing needs to think beyond the extremely modest wish list of a few protesters.
Who only want to include another candidate, for heavens sake, in upcoming elections!
Beijing would be well served to look at the advise of "flexible" war time president Roosevelt, "always use a velvet glove, but carry a big stick".
Well, China well and truly has a great big stick, and the implacable resolve needed to use it!
But only when and if actually really necessary!
What seems to be missing here is the velvet glove, also needed to keep their own citizens onside, and cooperating!
After all, the art of true statesmanship, is to know when to concede a crumb (another candidate)!
Seriously, is that really too much!?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 11:33:40 AM
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Hi Rhrosty

What you say may be true.
Then may be not.
I think Taiwan will be gradually incorporated into China as a Special Economic Zone - with political tightening coming 2 decades later as appears to be happening in HK 1997-2017

More immediately on HK
Protester numbers today will do the talking.
So far a rain storm has slowed down today's build up.

But will the Sun come out and the students arise? Answer me that?

BTW - Only an uncouth stereotyper would put that golden oldie TURNING JAPANESE by The Vapors on this string http://youtu.be/gEmJ-VWPDM4

Cheers

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 11:51:26 AM
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One version of the Tianamen square crackdown I heard (I think via some STRATFOR report) was that the commander of the Beijing garrison either refused out right or did a go slow protest on the order to clear the square owing to the fact that he and his staff had considerable business interests in that city. He was relieved of his command and his troops stood down upon the arrival of more "disciplined" troops from another province, apparently there was a big shakeup afterwards where the generals were forced to divest themselves of civilian investments and were given a stake in the defence industry as compensation.
It's kind of hard to get a general to shoot the people to whom he's selling t-shirts and beer under normal circumstances, I wonder where the PLA garrison in Hong Kong stand?
Posted by Jay Of Melbourne, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 3:45:15 PM
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Ah so Pete.
In my humble opinion, the Japanese have a stake in this outcome, as a very interested neighborhood spectator, and very nervous about the Chinese massive military build up.
And no doubt, will be looking for the seeds of material/military advantage in every local event!?
Tienanmen Square being just one of them? Treatment of Tibet another?
I have very different expectations, and based on the old truism, my enemies enemy is also my friend?
Meaning, we could still a needs based military alliance, (united we stand, divided we fall like veritable dominoes) forming between Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of who are threatened, in some real or perceived measure, by China's military and territorial expansion!
Yes, Taiwan could eventually be peacefully incorporated into the wealthy southern zone, and in that outcome, strengthen the economy and leadership credentials of the already most prosperous zone.
I see a peaceful prosperous future for China, if she adopts a lose confederation, not entirely dissimilar to the former USSR?
Albeit, with heaps of local autonomy, state parliaments, freedom of the press and expression; (one doesn't ever silence dissent by stifling it) and rule of law that finally includes everyone!
And a motto that could read, "we're not committed communists, criminals or fifth columnists, just cooperative capitalists comrade!
I mean, they have absolutely nothing to fear from adopting the cloak, respectability and mores of a social democracy!
And a badly needed happiness index, that is also part and parcel of already existing examples, and moreover, without changing very much at all!
Cheers Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 4:08:10 PM
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Just who is behind Occupy Central? Among the names frequently mentioned:
Benny Tai: a regular attender at US state Department, National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and its subsidiary the National Democratic Institute (NDI)

Martin Lee: founding chairman of the Democratic Party in Hong Kong. He travelled to the US this year too meet with NED officials.

Jimmy Lai: media mogul and close associate of the notorious neo-con Paul Wolfowitz, one of the main architects of the 'prevent any competitor to the Us arising' strategy.

Audrey Eu Yuet-Mee: Civic Party chairwoman. Another close associate of NED and NDI.

There is also the NED funded Hong Kong Transition Project which has links with Exxon, the British Council, the Rockefeller Fund, and Morgan Stanley among others.

Occupy Central is only one of several movements inside China that the US is running, none of them remotely linked to bringing 'peace and democracy'. Rather, it is part of a very widespread policy of fostering internal dissent and disruption, and "containing" China wherever possible beyond its borders.

Occupy Central may well have legitimate grievances. But just like the Arab Spring those grievances have been co-opted by individuals and organisations who have far less altruistic motives.
Posted by James O'Neill, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 4:25:21 PM
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James,
So what's the "motif" of the group which will attempt to turn this into a colour revolution?
In Ukraine it was Bandera and Sig runes, what's the go in Honkers?
I don't know anything about counter culture in China or Hong Kong, I can't imagine there are many Fascist styled groups there nor religious movements to be exploited such as in the Arab spring. What are we looking out for?
For those who don't know what I'm talking about see here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43i1FRDZSmg
Posted by Jay Of Melbourne, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 5:58:50 PM
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Jay, the point I was trying to make is that most of the so-called democracy movements in different parts of the world are usually no such thing, and when they are they are often co-opted by US sponsored groups for geo-political purposes.

We saw this in Ukraine when a genuine protest movement was quickly usurped by neo-Nazis. Victoria Nuland was the prime planner there. The object of the exercise was nothing to do with any aspirations the Ukrainians might have had: it was all about expanding NATO eastward, tasking over the Sevastopol naval base, and continuing the infiltration and disruption of Russia to prevent it becoming (with China) a threat to US hegemony.

That is precisely what is happening in Hong Kong. Before some of the usual suspects on this site accuse me, again, of anti-Americanism let me point out that there is plenty of literature out of US think tank land and elsewhere that spells this out quite blatantly.
Posted by James O'Neill, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 6:42:41 PM
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James,
We're on the same page, it's obviously not what it seems I just wondered since the stated goal of occupy central is not regime change what the U.S agent's angle might be in this situation?
In Ukraine it was Right Sector and the symbols, the wolfsangel and sig runes immediately identified the motif, all I've seen from Hong Kong are your fairly standard fake left groups similar to Socialist Alternative and the usual occupy street theatre, nothing really stands out as out of place at this point.
Posted by Jay Of Melbourne, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 8:14:54 PM
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Hi James

Sounds like the Third International - all those so-called "progressive" groups of scruffy bohemians into spouse swapping.

I mean China's Communist Party has more $$ Billionaire kids than the US Republican Party - a worthy aristocracy.
--

Hi Jay Of Melbourne

You're right about some PLA units refusing to fire on the Tiananmen protesters in 1989. A Division based near Beijing was near mutiny, troops battled troops. Finally the PLA leadership ordered an Mongolian motorised division (mean unread bastards) to literally crush the wayward intellectual "crypto-capitalist" protesters.

Here is the most famous Tiananmen casualty http://youtu.be/YeFzeNAHEhU later taken away and fatally re-educated by good Communists.
--

Hi Rhrosty

I think Chinese is so worried about seperatist provinces and territories - a tighter grip is essential - a bit like all French forced to speak the Parisienne dialect.

Hong Kong is such a key business asset for the region I don't thing Japan would want HK's economy damaged.
--

Meanwhile the HK authorities are getting fed up with stopped traffic. The police may clean up the protest tonight or tomorrow.

Regards

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 9:29:59 PM
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Pete, not for the first time I haven't a clue what you are talking about. It seems to me that it is completely off topic.

It appears that you have been completely captured by the western press's version of what happened in Tiananmen Square. You might like to read an article by Brian Becker published on global research.ca on 4 June 2014, the 25th anniversary. I am not saying that Becker is entirely correct, but if one is going to raise the bogeyman of the Chinese government poised for a repeat performance, which was the thrust of your article, it helps to have knowledge of alternative viewpoints.

As I have been discussing with Jay, the issues here are rather wider anyway.
Posted by James O'Neill, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 9:57:43 PM
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Any Western response to a crack down would most likely be more muted than in the Ukraine.

China is the US's banker. What should the US do if the Chinese react forcefully? Refuse to pay its interest bill?

I understand the Chinese position. The Chinese leadership's biggest fear is instability. Could you imagine a country with 1.3 billion people suffering a situation like Iraq? So while I categorically think democracy is the best form of Government, I have no desire whatsoever to impose it on others.
Posted by dane, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 10:39:19 PM
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Giday James O'Neill

So what's your pernicious leftwing take on responsibility for the Tiananmen Square Massacre by the Chinese People's Liberation Army?

Was it all the West's fault?

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 2 October 2014 11:40:53 AM
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Looks like the shopkeepers of HK are revolting against the protestors. The protestors have all but stopped tourism, traffic and usual custom to many shops on Hong Kong Island.

Adult Shop keeper Wang Hung-lo brandishing a long plastic cucumber-shaped object has been arrested for assaulting protesters.

On Wednesday, in the snarled traffic of old Kowloon, a motorist was arrested for attempting to drive his vehicle through the midst of several hundred democracy protesters. As police detained the driver, a shopkeeper named Kok Hung told reporters that his sympathies lie with the vehicle owner, that the activists’ camps are an increasing nuisance and an impediment to ordinary folk who "go about your business" [as Australia's counter-terrorist politicians would say] .
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 2 October 2014 12:48:05 PM
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Pete: "pernicious leftwing". My, how standards are dropping on this site (not that they were very high in the first place). One of the many problems with your approach is to try and fit things into a predetermined category which you either accept or reject according to your own world view.

Can I suggest an alternative? I assume, given your cv at the base of your articles, that you have sufficient intelligence to cope with a range of thoughts. Try looking at the evidence. Test the evidence against the usual standards as juries are instructed by the Judge to do. What emerges is a workable hypothesis. It may even reach the standard of a theory. Continue to test that hypothesis/theory against fresh evidence as it emerges. Modify said theory as necessary. It's not rocket science. The beauty is that it requires neither a "left" "centre" nor "right" perspective.

The second beauty of this approach is that it can be applied to almost any given situation. You and I share an interest in geo-politics and I am sure that over a beer or two we would have a wide ranging and intelligent discussion. We might not necessarily agree on the conclusion. I would like to think we could do that without resorting to the juvenile labelling and name calling that bedevils this site. Not too much to ask.

As to your specific question: I don't have an answer any more than I can provide instant solutions to the Palestine issue; Ukraine or world hunger. But I do recognise BS when I hear/read it. I also know that we are lied to more by what we are not told than what we are told. Hence my scepticism about any official version peddled in the media, mainstream or otherwise.
Posted by James O'Neill, Thursday, 2 October 2014 12:55:37 PM
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Giday Jimmy

So what your saying Beijing-Moscow apologist is that you refuse to condemn Beijing over the Tiananmen Square Massacre?

I understand protesting workers were executed without trial while student leaders following a kowtow court were executed for protesting at Tiananmen.

see http://www.visualartistsguild.info/VAG/main/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=191&Itemid=1

I didn't expect a humanitarian response from you Jimmy.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 2 October 2014 1:13:05 PM
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From speechers late last night the Hong Kong government is apparently considering student pro-democracy demands - very slowly.

The government is playing for time, hoping that most (now bored, tired) protesters will go home. The government is also encouraging community pressure (older people) to point out the economic damage the protesters are doing to HK and to workers less privileged than the average student leader.

There are widening disagreements on tactics between students who would sit down and block more highways and those with less provocative ideas in mind.

The hard-core of protesters remaining will eventually be arrested by police - possibly with violence - to the delight of the world media. Never before have so many Western journalists been despatched to expensive Hong Kong for so little copy.

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 3 October 2014 5:27:02 PM
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Looks like the student protester's smartphones are being tapped by China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) working with PLA-IT in the PLA Hong Kong Garrison.

MSS is exploiting protesters new reliance on downloads of the FireChat smartphone app - malware is part of the download. The malware gives MSS access to the address book, communication logs and other private data stored on the student's phone. The malware also allows MSS to take secret individual and crowd photos using the phone camera of the compromised smartphones.

So even student's not actually arrested at the demo may be rounded up days or weeks after. No-one needs to "talk" or inform on each other. The phones are revealing it all automatically.

For some reason Snowden did not talk about what China's NSA (which is PLA-IT) does when he was a guest of it in Hong Kong...

Full story see http://intelnews.org/2014/10/03/01-1567/
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 3 October 2014 8:16:24 PM
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As expected quite violent counter-demonstrators (probably organised by the Party and those with actual economic concerns) are having scuffles with the protestors.

HK Police are trying to separate the two groups.

The protesters are intentionally hurting the local economy (through road closures) and disrupting government services (proximity to government offices). Keeps international press coverage interesting.

No end in sight. The weekend means 2 more sure protest days at least. On Monday who knows. HK time is the same as Perth time.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/hong-kong-students-clash-with-beijing-fans-as-talks-fails/story-e6frg6so-122707943902
Posted by plantagenet, Saturday, 4 October 2014 11:22:57 AM
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50% chance that Hong Kong authorities will clear the protesters late tonight - Monday morning. The author theorised 3am would be a clearance time. Adding an hour for reporters to get their act together and time difference of 3 hours with daylight saving Eastern Australian time - that would be 8am our time. Outside time 4pm Monday our time.

"Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong must be cleared by Monday morning, its chief executive has announced. Hours after he spoke, however, tens of thousands of people flooded into the Admiralty area of the city centre in the biggest gathering for days." http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/hong-kong-protesters-cleared-monday-chief-executive
Posted by plantagenet, Sunday, 5 October 2014 2:14:01 PM
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