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The Forum > Article Comments > Sinking Pacific islands > Comments

Sinking Pacific islands : Comments

By Matt Thistlethwaite, published 31/7/2014

As the Pacific Islands Forum kicks off in Palau I hope our Pacific neighbours understand that Warren Truss and Brett Mason do not speak for all Australians when they outline our government's response to climate change.

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http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60023/IDO60023.2010.pdf
See page 13.

Sea level rise in the pacific is fairly complicated.
As Curmudgeon states sea level on average is rising at about 3.2 mm per year in the pacific.

The following factors confuse the issue:-
1 Islands vertical movement
2 El Nina causes sea level to drop in the western pacific and rise in the eastern pacific possibly by as much as 160 mm
3 La Nina produces the opposite effect.
4 Differences in average air pressure.

Nevertheless a sea level rise of 3.2mm per year is a major problem, that is over a foot per decade, and if as in the case of Tuvalu your Island is on average only six and half feet above sea level, you will be lucky if you do not get swamped within 60 years, and uninhabitable long before then.
Posted by warmair, Thursday, 31 July 2014 4:29:15 PM
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warmair - sorry but you've miscalculated.. I do it quite often, so I always have to work it out - 3.1 mm a year is 3.1 cms over a decade - or 31cms over a century which is somewhere around a foot in the Imperial units so its a foot over a century not a decade or two..
But you are right in that there is considerable natural variation which would have nothing to do with climate change..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Thursday, 31 July 2014 5:02:41 PM
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warmair,

1mm is 0.0032808398950131233 feet, making 3 mm = 0.00984251968503937 feet, or 3 mm = 0.11811023622047245 inches, or 1 inch = 25.4 mm.

Anyway, considering that there are 12 inches in 1 foot, 100 years of sea level rise at 3.2 mm per year for 100 years gives 1.0498687664041994 feet.

So it will take about 100 years for sea levels to rise about 1 foot.

A rise for sure, but that that great.

With one of the highest ecological footprints in the world, and our governments dedicated to increasing growth, consumption and population well beyond bursting capacity, I think there won’t be much left of Australia in 100 years (or even 50 years) to be worried about a rise in sea level.
Posted by Incomuicardo, Thursday, 31 July 2014 5:08:38 PM
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Curmudgeon
How embarrassing I stuffed up the calculation completely.
I must try to remember read twice post once.
Posted by warmair, Thursday, 31 July 2014 5:09:44 PM
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You could also try reading other posts Warmair.

The coral growth is increasing the amount of material making up all atolls where the fish have not been decimated.

Perhaps you don't realise, that is how atolls came into being. 101 in Reef building, just for you.

First a fringing reef around a volcanic island. Then sea rise or subsidence of the island left just the fringing reef. The work of fish, wind, tides & sea built the atoll from the debris of that reef.

It continues today, & will keep up with natural sea level rise, the only rise that is happening.

Do try to remember that just 10,000 ago the area where our outer reef now lies, was a range of coastal hills. The atolls survived the sea rise that submerged them, & will mostly survive now, if their people don't exceed their fresh water, mine the reef excessively for building materials, or destroy the fish.
Posted by Hasbeen, Thursday, 31 July 2014 5:48:14 PM
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Warren Truss g-g-good with ah um er w-w-words? Surely you jest?
Even prepared speeches seem to provide a p-p-problem.
And his original thoughts sis sis seem la la limited to blaming La La Labor for all our current ra ra raft of par par problems?
[Does he have a right royal speech impediment?
In which case I apologize for my laconic remarks.]
Easily addressed, by just closing all the tax loopholes, the coalition, more than anybody else, created via ever increasing complexity?
Every time I hear Warren, I'm reminded of the Kiwi parrot, the Kaka.
Which as many might know, got its name by flying around the Southern Alps, screaming out, ka ka crikey it's ka ka cold.
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 31 July 2014 6:24:11 PM
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