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The Forum > Article Comments > What's worse than an Iranian bomb? An Iranian almost-bomb > Comments

What's worse than an Iranian bomb? An Iranian almost-bomb : Comments

By Gary Gambill, published 16/1/2014

The primary objective of American policy must be a sweeping degradation of Iran's nuclear industrial infrastructure even if this provokes Iran into rashly attempting the construction of a bomb.

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Hi Steven

Guess who started Iran's nuclear program?

The US

In 1967, the Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC) was established, run by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). The TNRC was equipped with a U.S.-supplied, 5-megawatt nuclear research reactor, which was fueled by highly enriched uranium (HEU)

US President Ford signed a directive in 1976 offering Tehran the chance to buy and operate a U.S.-built reprocessing facility for extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The deal was for a complete 'nuclear fuel cycle'.

It was OK then for the US to supply dual-use HEU to Iran. And the US offered reprocessing facilities. Both are desirable building blocks for a nuclear weapons program.

Now Iran is banned from even contemplating HEU and reprocessing.

Cheers

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 17 January 2014 8:06:39 AM
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Yeah Pete, I knew that bit of history.

FYI the US also got my native South Africa started on the nuclear path. In those days there was a degree of nuclear cooperation between SA and Iran.

South Africa then got to the point of actually assembling six devices in the late 1980s early 1990s. They agreed to dismantle their nuclear program and accede to the NPT with a rigorous inspection program before handing power to the ANC. The latter were practically foaming at the mouth. They thought there were going to take over a nuclear armed state.

It was never going to happen. George Bush Snr made it clear that the US would bomb SA's nuclear installations. No way were they going to allow Muammur Gadaffi's good buddy, Nelson Mandela, get his hands on nukes.

Iran's drive to acquire nuclear weapons seems to have been triggered largely by fear of Saddam Hussein in the early 1980s. The fact that nuclear armed Sunni Pakistan, a friend of Saudi Arabia, was a neighbour may also have played a role.

While history is interesting we always have to deal with the present.

If Iran achieves near break-out status what do you anticipate the Saudis will do?
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Friday, 17 January 2014 9:32:59 AM
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Hi Steven

Iran is at or near breakout status - with the three components being:

- substantial stocks of semi enriched uranium, which could become bomb grade (90+%) HEU within a couple of months using Iran's thousands of centrifuges and possible hidden laser enrichment capability.

- the delivery means in the form of Sejjil and Shahab IRBMs, and

- enough nuclear device plans and components acquired from Pakistan's A Q Khan network to have constructed crude fission devices (minus the HEU and/or Plutonium explosive) around 8 years ago.

see http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/nuclear/

The Saudi's using their own info and that shared by Israel and the US, would be very aware of Iran's nuclear status. If Iran moved from breakout to fully assembled warheads on missiles the Saudis would probably rely on the US and Israel to strike Iran.

Meanwhile the Saudis might complete there own nuclear capability mainly by purchase in cash and oil from Pakistan, China more quietly from the US and perhaps even from Israel. see http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/saudi-arabia/

By 2010 the Iranians are likely to have conducted and maybe finished nuclear explosion simulations using a supercomputer at Isfahan - judging by the pattern of visitor activity to my website from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI). The AEOI left no comments (but the right IP numbers) and eventually tried to disguise its identity :)

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 17 January 2014 1:29:36 PM
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Steven and Pete. An interesting discussion, but it has yet to address the questions I posed in my earlier comment, especially at the 2nd and 3rd to last paragraphs.

I also puzzle over why Iran would wish to commit national suicide by attacking anyone in the region with its as yet unfinished nuclear arsenal. It would surely invite massive retaliation from both Israel and the US if Israel was the target.

On the basis of multiple public statements from Israeli politicians it is Israel that is more likely to attack Iran. They (Israel) also have an extensive track record in this area accumulated over the past 66 years.

If I was the Iranian President I would note that it is those who are best able to retaliate that are not attacked and therefore the possession of nuclear weapons would be a deterrent in the same way the Americans have been frustrated in their manifest desire to attack the then Soviet Union. Thankfully the mad men have been kept in check.

In his June 1963 speech to the American University Commencement Kennedy pointed out the inevitable result of unchecked nuclear ambition. It was one of reasons he was killed. But his point was valid: we will all end up annihilated unless we take meaningful steps to nuclear disarmament.

Rogue states like Israel have to be brought under control. Hence my earlier question: why sanction Iran and not Israel? I would welcome your thoughts on this particular hypocrisy.
Posted by James O'Neill, Friday, 17 January 2014 2:53:54 PM
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Hi James

You probably know more than I about international morality and law. So I'll leave your "I vill ask zee questions" call unresponded to. No offence.

Hi Steven

Further to my last Iranian and Saudi nuclear capabilities comment you might want to check out http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/iranian-nuclear-program-iranian.html which I might turn into an OLO article sometime.

Cheers

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 17 January 2014 3:24:26 PM
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James

I'll take the "plantagenet option" on your question. Once you call Israel a rogue state I see no point in debating with you.

Pete

I look forward to seeing your article.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Friday, 17 January 2014 5:12:27 PM
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