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The Forum > Article Comments > Australia's future: slow growth, falling terms of trade, lower per capita incomes? > Comments

Australia's future: slow growth, falling terms of trade, lower per capita incomes? : Comments

By Geoff Carmody, published 13/12/2013

Some economists recently warned Australian real incomes will fall, but they've been doing this for the last two years already.

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Here we go again – another economic analysis article in which there is not even a thought for the constantly and rapidly increasing demand for everything that our economy is supposed to provide!

Surely this is the crux of the matter. If we were to stabilise the demand, or at least greatly reduce the rate of increase, we might have some chance of the supply side actually matching the demand much more efficiently than it now does.

Due to rapid population growth, we have an ever-increasing demand for all manner of services, infrastructure, resources and export income. The existing population is paying through the nose to simply duplicate everything for ever-more people, and to repair and upgrade existing services and infrastructure which are being overburdened.

Instead of seeing all this economic activity that is generated by high immigration as a negative factor, we actually count it as a positive contribution to GDP and economic wellbeing!

Well, excuse me, but that is STUPID!

< …increasing living standards (measured by per capita consumption) cannot be sustained unless real per capita income growth returns. >

Absolutely! So how are we going to increase real per-capita improvements in living standards while we are struggling (and failing) to provide the same level of everything that we now have for an ever-bigger population?

Surely the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT POINT in economic reform is to steadily reduce immigration down to net zero or thereabouts, so that we may get ourselves onto the road towards a stable population, a stable demand for everything, and hence a much better prospect for being able to match supply with demand, with constantly improving quality… and hence be able to achieve a steadily improving per-capita living standard.

Can I ask you Geoff Carmody: If we continue on with very high immigration, how on earth are we going to achieve this?? How are things not going to get steadily worse?

Practically everything else that we could do would be nothing more than tinkering at the edges, rearranging the deck-chairs, and quite frankly; would just be ineffective!
Posted by Ludwig, Friday, 13 December 2013 8:57:32 AM
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Privatisation & Selling assets to pay for infrastructure for bigger self ingratiating immigration schemes is not only undemocratic, it is effectively a CargoCult mentality.

It inures us all into a belief that overseas expertise is best. That ours is worst.
Aussie politicians get FAT selling this country. They call citizens RACIST for objecting.

WARNING: PRIVATISATION is CARGO CULT & DEATH to AUSTRALIA and Australians.

Holden is just a tame warning of the consequences of this political Fascism.

As here are 'temporary' legal ramifications to unwinding existing privatisation errors, new fields of state run endeavours must be initiated to soak up lost jobs as foreign ownership tightens its jaws around our collective throats and shakes.

1. SA needs a Port Augusta to lake Eyre canal, downhill 15-mtrs over 300Km to flood the lake with sea-water, initiate clever vegetation regimes and a commercial salt recovery program. Schools participation as well as ex-Holden workers to be preferred workforce. Major national Hydrology benefits to accrue as cooler inland temps draw moist air from Grt-Aust-Bight.

2. Australia needs its own satellite launch program. Space based comms are cheaper, future proof and more flexible than terrestrial links. A major expansion of Australia's pitiful space program (heavily infested and hamstrung by US researchers) is needed. A new sub-5kg satellite technology and an equispaced 256 satellite capture array for <#2Billion is viable. Not only internet comms but also Materiel handling is possible. This world leading project would be employment city. State schools supplying workers on a merit/rotation basis. The days of hard-coded "commercial in confidence" preventing our workers gaining Ultra tech skills is OVER.

There is at least one such major employment startup for each state. The world SHOULD KNOW Australia is not a "World's Mine" bone for global powers to growl over.

REMEMBER: Globalisation is NOT an equal field of play but the 'Field of dreams' for those nations with nuclear weapons.
Posted by KAEP, Friday, 13 December 2013 10:51:41 AM
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Ludwig makes a good point. How can we afford to pay for such high immigration? In the past we created some of our own credit to pay fro growth. Now since we have sold off all our Govt banks, all this new growth gets expressed as debt and the money moves off shore.

Even our own 4 big banks are up to 40% owned by HSBC,JP Morgan and Citibank,so any new money created by them half moves OS.

Under our present system, the more growth we have the more debt we incur. Time to re-invent Govt banks Geoff.
Posted by Arjay, Friday, 13 December 2013 11:33:50 AM
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The author is correct on one point, if on no other, with the statement: “ programs can become just so much waffle and soak up scarce taxpayer funds” It is more than just a random coincidence that “Real per capita income in the September quarter, 2013, was about 2% lower than in the second half of 2011” when that almost that percentage was required to match the needs of servicing the extra number of Australia’ns over that period (1.8% growth rate per annum - similar to that of underdeveloped nations)
Posted by colinsett, Friday, 13 December 2013 11:42:29 AM
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Getting rid of big government has to the first thing on the agenda, and a flat income tax rate with less reliance on income tax is a way to do that. While a very few people pay most of the tax, the rest will not make any attempt to resist Big Government; they are happy to take anything they don’t have to pay for. As long as this situation prevails, government will grow, and their will be no end to profligate spending and interference in the economy by politicians.

Getting older people (how old?) to work is nonsense. Employers don’t want older people, and just now many people over current pension age want to work?

Yes, “...using all available resources more extensively – working them harder – to do the job” is a fine idea but, in the meantime saving, not spending, is the key for both government (spending other people’s money) and individuals spending on credit. Big Government loves credit.

Then the author gets a bit muddled: concerned about the price of medicines (the only way around that would be regulation), but suggests that there might be too much regulation in coastal shipping. All regulation by is a irritation to someone, and should apply to far less than it does. The market is the best regulator. But, over-regulation is a result of Big Government, so that’s still the main thing to get rid of before anything else.

As far as medicine goes – yes, the manufacturers are No. 1 gougers. However, Americans seem to get around this by getting their supplies from Canada. Perhaps Australians could do something similar with SE Asia. If enough people did it, the over-grown government regulators would be powerless to stop the trade.

The National Commission of Audit is a waste of space, money and time. I don’t know who the Commissioners are, but I’d put my shirt on the idea that they are an ‘elite’ (and another arm of Big Government) that they are totally remote from the experiences of the rest of us. Forget the government altogether: they don’t represent us.
Posted by NeverTrustPoliticians, Friday, 13 December 2013 1:08:34 PM
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Not a population issue. In fact, almost none of Oz's current issues have anything to do with population or immigration. Some utilities such as power are noting falls in domestic consumption due in part to price and new power sources.

The story is is fall in employment in mining in WA but the writer is right to mention workplace productivity. We have far too many people on the dole (ignore the ABS one hour per week criterion for being employed), those who have dropped out and mature job seekers. If you roll em all together its about one million people who do bugger all who are fit and ready for work.

Per capita figures can be curious as they don't tell you much about distribution of wealth. World Bank puts Oz at about 9th in globe on per capita incomes, but not if you're black, young, unemployed or a female. Actually, if you take out the oil rich nations such as Bruni, Norway and Qatar, Oz would sit in the top five per capita.
Posted by Malcolm 'Paddy' King, Friday, 13 December 2013 1:57:55 PM
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What is it with economists, almost to a man/woman, they pronounce belief in global warming.

Is it that they are too dumb to do the math to understand the fraud?

Do they actually believe the fraud?

Is it that there is a buck in it for them?

Or is it lots of nice government consultancies advising them how to use the fraud to get a buck out of us?

What ever it is, the only people more likely to pronounce a belief in Global Warming are those directly riding the gravy train.

It is a pity, because the article, which talks sense in almost every other way, is degraded with the Global Warming bit of fluff.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 13 December 2013 2:42:27 PM
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This Is a population issue.

In fact, almost all of Oz's current issues are to do with overpopulation primarily from immigration. Some utilities such as power are noting rises in domestic power costs due fully to "Poles & wires costs" which without immigration would not be necessary. Immigration only benefits greed bound corporations, unconscionable supermarket monopolies and power hungry tin pot Politicians who are so stupid they can't tell the difference between QUALITY and quantity.

The story is is fall in employment in mining in WA which is due to new technology so WHY the writer mentions workplace productivity is a Mystery. We have far too many people on the dole - half of them can't even speak English (ignore the ABS one hour per week criterion for being employed). Those who have been pushed out because they are not politically or Family aligned have to fight foreign dole professionals for Government handouts of pocket money. If you roll em all together its about one million people who do bugger all because there is not enough work for the numbers of people in Australia today let alone a Political "Wet Dream" BIG Australia which will resemble "1984" rather than a brave, free thinking Nation.

Per capita figures can be curious as they don't tell you much about distribution of wealth. Particularly wealth gained by using immigration as a multiplier tool for political Power and Market share opportunities for just a handful of Families in this unlucky HIJACKED country.
Posted by KAEP, Friday, 13 December 2013 4:07:19 PM
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Ludwig has a good point about immigration. However I would expect that the current rates would be wound down to minimise the rise in unemployment.

There is, however a simple five word method of solving the immigration question permanently.

Bring back the Dictation Test.
Posted by plerdsus, Friday, 13 December 2013 4:56:20 PM
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Population has and always will be a beat up. It's an easy fix for the blame squad. Keep kicking it down the social structure until you find the newly arrived immigrants, who, from their luxurious houses are running a secret command economy behind our backs. Get real. These are the poorest of the poor. Migrants have such buying power they are swamping consumer market. Where do you get this Enoch Powell tripe from?

You're sitting pretty with Kelvin Thomson who wants to slash Australia's annual temporary and permanent immigrant intake of about 400,000 people - including 253,000 international students - to 70,000 across Australia.

According to the Department of Immigration and Citizenship’s Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants, at the six-month stage of settlement, the unemployment rate for skilled migrants was 5 per cent. Six months later the unemployment rate for this group had fallen to less than half of this rate.

You and Ludwig would slash our $15 billion international student market, kick out the Kiwis and recreate the high tariff and Fortress Australia mentality of the post war era. Welcome to the Great Leap Back. That's why the anti-pops polled 9000 votes NATIONALLY.
Posted by Malcolm 'Paddy' King, Friday, 13 December 2013 5:16:47 PM
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All successful nations have a Fortress mentality. That's why they have armed forces.

To cite a Fortress mentality as some kind of evil is like advocating screen doors on a submarine.

Some people need to wake up and smell reality.

Of the 7.3 billion people on this planet, about 5 billion would love to come here. Choosing the poorest or the thievingest illegals hardly helps Fortress Australia maintain its vitality, ingenuity and integrity. And THIS is why Holden, Quantas and all other Fortress Dollar corporations are leaving Australia.

And just wait... there's a lot more bad news to come.

Our politicians are like big spoilt babies... they DON'T HAVE A CLUE!

Meanwhile n'ere do wells tell us to be ashamed if we desist this horrid immigration disrespect for our national sovereignty.
Posted by KAEP, Friday, 13 December 2013 5:55:37 PM
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Good Lucy convincing many on this site, because they still think we are in great shape.

Low unemployment, the envy of the civilized word are just two examples of what they preach.

Sure, we have low unemployment, provided you calculate being employed as working JUST ONE HOUR PER WEEK.

And yes, we are the envy of the world, but that only makes us better than the rest, it doesn't make us good, and let's face it, the competition is not very strong.

Chances are in the next three years or so, we will have no car industry, no Qantas and next to no manufacturing.

In fact, we will have the highest paid, under employed in the world.

Hardly what I would describe as a trophy worthy of bragging about.
Posted by rehctub, Saturday, 14 December 2013 10:21:42 AM
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I feel sure that one of Australia's biggest problems is economists !
They are stuck in the business as usual mode and are unable to comprehend
that the world has changed.
Ludwig I believe is very right in his assertions.
There is another factor that affects population.
We cannot have a population greater than can be fed & watered in a major drought !

As we saw a few years ago we have close to that level now.
Does any economist know where we will get the water and food for double the population ?

Whats that I hear ? The Market will find it !

Just like it has found more crude oil ?
Yes they will squeeze the sponge and get a little more, but like with oil it will not solve the problem.

While economists have the ear of politicians we will get nowhere.
You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of economists
that really understand what is going on.
You would think that with the jammed up economies in Europe and the
US's monumental debt clanging like a cow bell around its neck that
somewhere economists would start thinking about where the old rules went.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 14 December 2013 2:57:34 PM
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geof..when will..you realize..un limited 'growth'
simply..isnt sustainable....[recall china is monetary easing 4 fold usa]..

A paper currency system contains the seeds of its own destruction. The temptation for the monopolist money producer to increase the money supply is almost irresistible. In such a system with a constantly increasing money supply and, as a consequence, constantly increasing prices, it does not make much sense to save in cash to purchase assets later. A better strategy, given this senario, is to go into debt to purchase assets and pay back the debts later with a devalued currency.

THAT MEANS HYPER INFLATION..
which means screwing more personal debt upon the unborn
http://www.infowars.com/how-the-paper-money-experiment-will-end/

"That this House considers that the continued issue of all the means of exchange - be they coin, bank-notes or credit, largely passed on by cheques - by private firms as an interest-bearing debt against the public should cease forthwith; that the Sovereign power and duty of issuing money in all forms should be returned to the Crown, then to be put into circulation free of all debt and interest obligations..." -- Captain Henry Kerby MP, in an Early Day Motion tabled in 1964.

then ask..them should bankers..or govt run the money system
[when..t6hat dont wake them..up

i would ask them..re EASY credit
yet exorbitant credit card intrest rates
[ie..usa debt..is/now so huge..there cant EVER..be issued enough..of it to even repay..the intrest..let alone the principle

[lest we forget..ALL money..is only *created..
by SOMEONE..going into..debt..i would ask/them..how much.more personal debt..can you afford..to minimum payment..on..[and who will pay..it..after your dead.

i would remind/them..their children..will/NEED to repay..their debts
plus their education/costs..[hex/debt]on-top of parental debt..and at what stage..do they see their kids being born..into a pre birth debt

can..one owe..anything..for what..one didnt gain/the benefit of?
is it right..the dead suck..the life blood[credit]..from..the unborn?

http://www.infowars.com/stefan-molyneux-discusses-our-current-place-in-human-history/

lest..we forget..the thousands of ;edward..snowdens
using the spying info..to insider trade..ya dont..think..any of the watchers..are insider trading..onthe info?
http://www.activistpost.com/2013/12/bankers-arrested-civil-war-averted.html
Posted by one under god, Sunday, 15 December 2013 7:24:49 AM
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this/posted..at wrong thread
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=15820&page=0

some people..take things as signs
like recall the ice-man[grand inquisitor].?
http://www.sacred-texts.com/eso/wsl/wsl11.htm
then but a few signs

[thus be carefull..for what you pray for
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=6040&page=0#178185

'Iceland model: How to deal with bankers
should be standard for whole world'
http://xrepublic.tv/node/6566

Iceland Jails Former Bank Bosses
http://sorendreier.com/iceland-jails-former-bank-bosses/

http://investmentwatchblog.com/snowburst-5-to-6-feet-of-snow-in-upstate-new-york/

they say..a picture=1001..words

In Turkey, goats (still alive) coated with ICE!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OW9jlnCjM8&feature=youtu.be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OW9jlnCjM8&feature=player_embedded

http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/gorecicle.jpg
http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/snow1.jpg

It's all over Israel and Palestine.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/apartheidwallinsnow.jpg
http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2013/12/15/images-of-the-day-im-dreaming-of-a-white-apartheid/
http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2013/12/15/in-photos-braving-the-cold-and-snow-to-protest-blood-diamonds-and-occupation/

http://www.visibleorigami.com/2013/12/love-and-fear-and-heart-of-populace.html
http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/12/andrew-p-napolitano/a-conspiracy-so-vast%E2%80%A8/

http://www.activistpost.com/2013/12/bankers-arrested-civil-war-averted.html

http://undergrounddocumentaries.com/the-bill-clinton-murders-bill-clinton-exposed/

http://xrepublic.tv/node/6578
http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/football-game-or-tear-gas-and-bullets-palestinians-put-racist-ad-to-test/

http://investmentwatchblog.com/volckers-market-making-mayhem-and-the-feds-money-for-nothing/

http://govtslaves.info/blogger-jailed-refusing-erase-stories-wrote-exposing-powerful-political-family/

http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/12/14/sandy-hook-one-year-later-there-are-more-questions-than-answers/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2524003/The-great-Christmas-rip-Shoppers-end-paying-50-toys-retailers-increase-prices.html

d.i.y
http://whatreallyhappened.com/node
Posted by one under god, Monday, 16 December 2013 6:01:43 AM
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UOG, you are wasting your time addressing an economist.
They think it all depends on money.
That is why they urge the printing of it to increase growth.
They just do not comprehend that growth needs more easy to get energy.
It is just that simple !
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 16 December 2013 9:02:48 AM
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