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The Forum > Article Comments > The Power of fibre > Comments

The Power of fibre : Comments

By Andrew Leigh, published 21/5/2013

The support that fast and reliable internet will provide our teachers (particularly in rural areas) will be of huge benefit to our schools.

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Written and authorised by Andrew Leigh for the Labor Party.
Posted by Bren, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 8:04:29 AM
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Andrew Leigh,

You are an economist. So why don't you present a proper cost-benefit analysis for Labor's >$100 billion NBN thought bubble?

Why haven't you advocated that the Productivity Commission do a proper cost benefit analysis?

Have you heard of "Earned Value Management"? The Australian standard is AS4817 "Project Performance Measurement using Earned Value"

The Commonwealth requires earned value reporting for large publicly projects such as Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO) procurements and large government procurements. Any DMO project over $100 million report progress and project performance and forecast to complete using earned value method. Why hasn't the government demanded NBN report progress, performance to date and forecast to completion using earned value.

I can guess the reason. It is far too embarrassing. Based on progress to date (and recognise the project is now 20% through its estimated duration), the NBN would be complete in 2073 and run over cost by about 2.5 times - i.e. over $100 billion projected cost at completion based on performance to date.

Many economists have not heard of Earned Value Management (or more correctly Earned Value Performance Measurement). Google it and also look at the Australian Standard.

I look forward to your response here.
Posted by Peter Lang, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 9:24:59 AM
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The Sydney Harbour Bridge analogy does not really work in regards to the NBN.
The bridge connects two nodes (Sydney CBD/ North shore) You still had to use every day two lane roads to get home.
As demand for capacity increased they first improved the efficiency (banned livestock and horses)then expanded the backbone,the Cahill expressway then the Warringah expressway then the western distributor then the harbour tunnel. By your reasoning the Govt should of built the lot in the thirties.
A much closer analogy for the NBN would be the Alice Springs/ Darwin Railway a huge over capacity for the foreseeable future, something which the then Labor opposition opposed ( mainly because PM Howard supported the project).

Secondly as I understand it most school children still go to a govt supported building called a school.Usually there are only a few schools per community so it would much cheaper to provide fibre to them rather than to every house.
As I understand it most exchanges already interconnected with a fibre optic backbone, why else would NBN Co pay so much money to Telstra.

The way Labor is going on about the NBN to the home they will be legislating that we will be only allowed out of house on special occasions!

No doubt fibre gives performance without peer but do we need it to 98% of houses now.
Let it grow in an economical way and please let up with the spin.
Posted by AllanL, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 10:15:21 AM
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I agree with everything you say Andrew. However, in order for us to get fibre to the home, we need to re-elect Labour.
That just ain't gonna happen!
Unless of course, our PM has revelation, [on the road to Damascus moment,] and decides marriage equality is an election issue.
My house is just thirty feet from a node or cabinet, and around fifty feet from an exchange, so I'll be okay.
And our little rural village, is less likely to experience the sort of loads, that will make fibre to the node, little better than we have now, and worse if you live more than 400 metres from a node?
Not much of a result for an outlay of around fifty billion, eh? And rural Australia, will once again become the forgotten people!
Eventually, we will in due course, finish rolling out the fibre, for possibly three times more than what we will pay doing it now.
Deferred infrastructure just doubles in cost during a decade!
I mean, how much did we pay for that Bridge?
And what would we pay today for a virtual 8 lane bridge now?
Not doing it right the first time, is just more of the costly penny wise pound foolishness of politicians, dressed up as prudence!
Interestingly, Rudd was in the news, suddenly having a light bulb moment, and reversing his former stance on Gay marriage.
This is gonna happen, and Labour won't hurt its electoral prospects, by backing it as an election issue.
That said, I believe Labour, does need to spend some time in the political wilderness, to rid itself of a clearly corrupt element and a criminal cadre; and, I fear most voters have already made up their minds and will toss Labour out in September.
And maybe even give the coalition control of the senate?
If not then, then in the following double dissolution.
And that's when we will get the parliament and the broadband, we so richly deserve!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 11:25:17 AM
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Andrew Leigh was an associate for the 'brilliant' Michael Kirby eh ? Therefore he's just another Labor hack !
Posted by misanthrope, Tuesday, 21 May 2013 2:37:28 PM
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Lefties (Arts "Graduates") find a "techo" word and then in an orgy of ignorance use it to death. Wireless systems are killing FTTH, as is now obvious with Telstra using their payoff to build theirs and Optus with such as the Vivid spectrum.
Schools don't need NBN, they already had connections, anyway Teachers will try to ban it as it allows competent competition into "their" balliwick. A major educational effect of high speed internet will be more home schooling, Parents will be able to supplement with educators far superior to the local school at a press of a button. Basically big E's educations natural monopoly has been broken.
Posted by McCackie, Wednesday, 22 May 2013 6:22:00 AM
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Interesting how most public schools are rejecting the NBN as unnecessary.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 22 May 2013 7:54:37 AM
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The NBN is another example of a poorly planned and executed Labor Government project. The supposed benefits are ill-defined. That such a vast capital outlay is to be made without a cost benefit analysis, is plainly irrational. Progress on the project to date indicates that it will run years late, total capital outlay would more than double, and that much higher wholesale prices would be needed to recover capital invested. We would inherit the highest broadband prices in the developed world, unless a large proportion of the capital investment is written off.

The Coalition's latest plan for the structure of the NBN does not inspire confidence.

It is imperative that regardless of whether Labor is voted out or not, a rigorous cost benefit analysis of the various NBN options be carried out as a matter of urgency.
Posted by Raycom, Saturday, 25 May 2013 11:59:16 PM
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Gawd 'elp us! If this is what the good Dr Leigh thinks passes for an economic argument then perhaps it's just as well he's no longer teaching.

I'm sure that many schools would love to have fibre. I'm also sure they'd rather have lots of other things that could be bought with the enormous amount of money that is being thrown down the ducts of the NBN.

However, that's of little import. This is to be a network that primarily services homes. I can readily see the potential benefits of a vast increase in bandwidth for commercial and other corporate entities, but I have yet to be given a credible benefit that will flow from giving every home the same capacity as an enterprise with several hundred users. What next are we to be promised? A bus in every driveway, perhaps? Think of all the things that might be possible if you have the capacity to transport 80 people wherever you go! The possibilities are endless. It would end the need for all those messy public transport interconnections and noone would ever have to wait for a bus again, not to mention that no child would ever face being left behind because there's no room in the car! As for taxis and trains, these are old technology which the NBusN will rightfully make obsolete. The productivity increase would be huge.

Or not.

Perhaps Dr Leigh might turn his thoughts to just what those nebulous "future applictions" that he claims must exist might be? Other places in the world, such as South Korea, parts of Europe and the US, Japan, all have broadband networks that exceed the 100Mb/s limit promised by the NBN and have done so for some time, using either FTTN, HFC or variants of xDSL. What applications have emerged that they can use and we can't? As Dr Leigh is an economist, perhaps he can quantify the economic benefits that have accrued due to a ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the home?
Posted by Antiseptic, Sunday, 26 May 2013 11:58:41 AM
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