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The Forum > Article Comments > Australia’s next treasurer emerges from the shadows > Comments

Australia’s next treasurer emerges from the shadows : Comments

By Alan Austin, published 6/3/2013

The philosophy of the man who would be Australia’s next treasurer now revealed.

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'Usually happens after I write about truth-telling, fact-checking, honesty, transparency and integrity'.

indeed you are hilarious. What a pompous tosser. I repeat, you are not a scholar, but a mere cheer leader for Labor.

There are obvious reasons why Aust is where it is, and why the US is in trouble in comparison. Your article hardly points out the factors.

Most Australians dont agree with you, why is that i wonder. Oh yes, it is the evil press. If only they listended to AA, public policy and political commentary superhero.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Wednesday, 13 March 2013 1:44:34 PM
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what hourly rates are you paying?
Alan Austin,
you mean how much taxpayers' money is used to pay those mismanaging bureaucrats, consultants, engineers etc who through some inexplicable reason have been chosen to run these projects ?
Well, a CEO on 300 grand plus expenses, several EO's on 180 grand Plus expenses, then their wives on 70 -90 grand plus expenses, workers on 40-65 grand plus few expenses,local employees $40 grand, all for a community of 7000. No hands-on training whatsoever but several courses by some consultant training companies for one week every three or so years.
Then, management presents papers to some utterly ignorant bureaucrat in the South with a rose-coloured report to say all is well. Meanwhile the crap is clogging the proverbial fan.
It's all not available information.
Posted by individual, Wednesday, 13 March 2013 7:16:53 PM
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Hi again Shadow Minister,

Yes, your revised GDP figures are correct. Thanks.

Yes, Australia’s “surge” of 0.6% GDP growth for Q4 is modest in absolute terms. But it was way ahead of the USA’s 0.1% and Canada’s 0.2%. Europe went backwards, with negative 0.3% here in France and in the UK. Germany and the Euro Area were negative 0.6. Yikes!

Australia also had a strong surge – okay, rise – in exports, productivity and industrial production – well ahead of the USA, Canada, Japan, the UK and the Euro Area.

Yes, SM, I agree the US economy is "heading in the right direction”. Certainly. Especially compared with Europe. But would you say expectations are now dampened somewhat after the Q4 declines in the growth rate, production, exports, productivity, etc?

Re: “Anyone living and working in Australia would know that the non mining sector … is at best flat and in many cases going backwards.”

Not sure, SM. Industrial production, retail sales, building approvals, meat production and others are going up. Ref. latest ABS figures.

Re: “Labor keeps telling us that everything is great, while the reality is very different.”

Hmmm. Not sure anyone is saying things are great. We are, after all, in the worst downturn since the Great Depression. But it’s clear Australia is travelling waaaay better than any other nation, and better than at any time in your history.

Re: “the IMF report on fiscal profligacy was widely discredited as political BS”

Really? By whom? Anyone independent?

Hi again Chris,

Regarding “the evil press” in Australia. You are probably right. But The Australian is sometimes handy. Whenever we read something there about economics or politics we can be almost certain the opposite is the reality.

For example, today Chris Kenny has a piece about media standards, the Daily Telegraph and the Greens. Several key statements there are clearly contradicted by Press Council rulings. So as expected, he writes the exact opposite of the truth.

But, of course, it’s always important to check. A ‘journalist’ there might make a mistake one day and accidentally write something accurate.

Cheers, AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Wednesday, 13 March 2013 8:21:34 PM
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AA,

How can you expect to be taken seriously if you simply cherry pick one quater. There are reasons why this measurement differed from the others such as government defense spending was sharply reduced. That the rest of the economy continued to grow at the same pace shows that anyone taking only one statistical blip and extrapolating from it is a statistical dunce.

Australian exports have been tracking down since 2011, and the NON mining industrial production is more closely reflected in the capacity utilisation which is tracking down.

The only increases are in unemployment, government debt and government spending (brought by one of the world's most incompetent treasurers). Just look at how job vacancies are crashing to guess what is up ahead.

As for the IMF report, the disclaimer "Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF." says it all. Working papers are notorius for pushing particular political agendas.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 14 March 2013 6:45:57 AM
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Hi again SM,

Re: “How can you expect to be taken seriously if you cherry pick one quarter.”

Excellent question! Actually this began with your claim a few posts back that “The US economy is now starting to take off on the back of the low dollar ...”

When you say “starting to take off” it's entirely reasonable to look at the last quarter. No?

When we did, it disproved your claim. Correct?

You then said “Australia with a high dollar, soaring energy costs and an increasingly rigid job market is beginning to see falling productivity, increasing unemployment and falling profits ...”

You said “beginning to”.

We then looked at the latest figures on those variables. And Voila! (as we say here) Assertions disproven again.

I absolutely insist on looking at all charts on all variables over whatever historic periods are available, SM. I find this endlessly fascinating. And educational. (The fact that the awareness gained peeves Chris and Cohenite is merely an incidental amusement.)

Re: “Australian exports have been tracking down since 2011”

Really, SM? Have you looked at the non-cherry-picked data?

Exports are still impressive, after a huge surge – gotta stop using that word – from April 2011 to January 2012. Would you agree, looking at the graph, that those 10 months were perhaps aberrant, SM?

Re: “The only increases are in unemployment, government debt and government spending”

Not at all, SM. Quite false.

Unemployment has oscillated within the narrow 4.9% – 5.5% band for the last 38 months. The trend is incredibly flat.

Government debt is at historic lows, as discussed earlier, both for Australia and relative to everywhere else.

And the only period in Australia’s history when government spending was “profligate” was during the previous Coalition regime - twice.

Re: “brought by one of the world's most incompetent treasurers”.

Hey! Just realised something, SM … You are Joe Hockey, aren’t you?!

Now it all makes sense! Why didn’t you say so in the first place, SM. I would have shown you how to find the graphs you need straight away!

Cheers for now, Joe.

AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Thursday, 14 March 2013 8:26:27 AM
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AA,

A single swallow does not a summer make.

Anyone with even a smidgeon of economics knows that statistics produce "outliers" from one off events, and that these need to be discounted. It took me about 30 seconds to investigate why the US GDP grew by 3.1% in the 3rd quarter and only 0.1% in the 4th.

Seizing on an statistical outlier to prove a point is the sign of ignorance or dishonesty. Simply reading more widely such as some financial periodicals would prevent such a blunder.

Then you put forward pure BS. The cost of electricity, and gas have sky rocketed, petrol (excluded from the carbon tax) is the only exception, but is one of the smallest component of energy consumption.

Productivity is measured in dollars worth of production per unit of labor, and would be expected to increase at the inflation rate even if productivity in real terms stayed flat, so looking far back historical is redundant. Again most of the gains came from the mining industry, and reduction in full time employment.

As far as unemployment goes, while there have been fluctuations, the trend is undeniably upwards.

The question is whether you have any economic qualifications whatsoever. If you have you hide them well
Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 14 March 2013 5:14:59 PM
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