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The Forum > Article Comments > The longest election campaign ever? > Comments

The longest election campaign ever? : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 1/2/2013

What advantages does the PM gain by announcing the election date this early?

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Interesting Don,

But what do you make of the hypothesis that Ms Gillard announced the election now to lock the Opposition in with Mr Abbott against whom she will probably win - based on personal approvals - and to stymie the switch to Mr Turnbull against whom she would most likely lose?

Thanks, AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Friday, 1 February 2013 6:49:36 AM
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I view the long election campaign with unabashed horror. When I see either Tony or Julia my first reaction is to feel like vomiting.

I'm sick of both of them. They are both self-serving and hopelessly incompetent. They both project the worst side of political endeavour. They lie and procrastinate endlessly and are not above engaging in dirty deals and shady practices.

I suspect that the rate of mental illness across Australia is going to rise steeply over the next few months as pathetic ads fill our television screens and scenes of Julia and Tony packing shelves with fruit or cleaning fish play endlessly.

If we could load ALL the current batch of politicians on both sides on a leaky boat and launch them into an eastward-flowing current, most Australians would applaud.

God help those who live where they'd end up but they'd no longer be our worry and our new crop of politicians might save our country!

Might.
Posted by David G, Friday, 1 February 2013 9:59:35 AM
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Hi Don,

I’m not sure anyone will know JG’s motivation. All we can say is that whatever was behind it, its purpose was self interest. It smells of panic, desperation and knee jerk. She is now going to war with the ALP, caucus and government MP’s. This alone telegraphs her desperation.

Her announcements are littered with “invitations” to TA to come out with his policies. He won’t of course and will leave JG to operate in a vacuum of her own making, hunting down an opponent that is not there. Chasing phantoms is not a good look.

Added to her self made dilemma is the prospect of changed preference flows. Current polls are based upon preference flows as at 2010. She personally destroyed the brand image of the Impendent MP’s, they won’t recover from that. She personally destroyed the brand image of the Greens for the same reasons. It now appears likely that preference options will reduce by both opportunities and by volume not to mention marginals, so it’s bye by to the Greens (especially in Tassie) and the Indies.

Unless TA screws up big time JG is gone. JG also has the judicial clock running. She must run long enough to smash TA’s policies but keep the option open to go earlier if more allegations/arrests eventuate. A real big rock and a very hard place. That IMHO, is what her strategy delivers, just one option, it's high risk and she's no good at assessing risk. Boom!

JG has just demonstrated the difference between education and intelligence, she’s so sharp she is going to take out all the political parasites with her.

Thanks Julia, take all the time you need and please keep up the good work.
Posted by spindoc, Friday, 1 February 2013 11:33:57 AM
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Abbott will stuff him self as usual. His woman in power hating will rise to the surface as normal. Booking an election has sidelined Turnbull.
Abbott is no match for Julia, he has to have written scripts.
The bumblings will take over and that is when the foot gets dislodged.
Surely Turnbull would have been the obvious choice.
Posted by 579, Friday, 1 February 2013 1:24:44 PM
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579

You jest of course. You reckon that Julia's Handbag Hit Squad with Penny Wong could still play the misogyny card?

What about this?

Tim Mathieson, Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s consort addressing the subject of prostate cancer with the visiting West Indian cricket team at the Lodge,

"We can get a blood test for it, but the digital examination is the only true way to get a correct reading on your prostate, so make sure you go and do that, and perhaps look for a small Asian female doctor is probably the best way."

Julia didn't correct 'that man' at the time, which would have been easy enough for someone so uniquely sensitive to misogyny to do. Julia has previously been able to find misogyny in a casual glance at a wristwatch.

Doubtless she has received supportive counselling from the also serially very sensitive Nicola Roxon, Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and Jenny Macklin.

Maybe it isn't what was said, the offence lies in just who has said it. That takes mind reading. Interesting.
Posted by onthebeach, Friday, 1 February 2013 3:41:02 PM
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Why has Malcolm Turnbull been sidelined? Can't he be elected Liberal leader in say, the next three months?
Posted by Waterhole, Friday, 1 February 2013 4:20:46 PM
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Well said, Waterhole.
Malcolm Turnbull seems credible, genuine, and honourable, unlike Abbott who photo-ops his way for the daily media by pretending to be what he isn't.
I realise that this is just pictorial acting, yet it betrays an attitude of pretence - The Great Pretender - which cuts across his believability.
Malcol Turnbull is a proven competent - he is a financial success story as well as a successful barrister, the sort of person who would be a realistic Prime Minister. That is, if the Liberal Party would come to its senses and put him back in power as its leader.
Or Malcolm could do what he has been asked by many - form a new party, and challenge all!
Posted by Ponder, Friday, 1 February 2013 5:02:35 PM
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Could JG's strategy be to tempt Tony Abbott into succumbing to the Government's and media's constant baiting to "show us your policies", so that they can then subject them to constant attack, as per their ongoing attacks on John Howard's Work Choices policy?

It remains to be seen whether Tony Abbott would be awake to such a ploy.

Re Malcolm Turnbull vs Tony Abbott, it is amusing how the Left prefers Malcolm to Tony. Admittedly, Malcolm, who professes to be 'progressive', undoubtedly would make a much better Labor man than Tony.
Posted by Raycom, Friday, 1 February 2013 11:12:40 PM
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Of course the left like Turnbull.

He is a copy of Rudd. An arrogant incompetent actor, with no idea of what Oz needs, only interested in his image.

Obviously a perfect leader for the left. Definitely not someone any thinking person would vote for.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 1 February 2013 11:49:49 PM
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Another 7 months of Labor wandering aimlessly from one self inflicted crisis to another.

In 3 days we have an election announcement, Thomson arrested finally, and now Chris Evans and Roxon announcing they are resigning from cabinet and abandoning Labor.

Abbott doesn't even have to do much campaigning as labor tears itself apart.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 2 February 2013 5:10:36 AM
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Abbott is trying to put on a brave face, but can't quite cut it. The longer he tries the worse he looks. Everyone is expecting him to say something, but no just roll over the same rehearsed lines.
After 4 years of negativity, and tea party tactic's and to pull on a photogenic face now, is not going to work.
Tony has once again been stumped by a female, and it will hurt.
You can't write anything posative about the man as he does not say anything new, and everyone else in his team has a gag on.
Posted by 579, Saturday, 2 February 2013 5:20:56 AM
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for AA:

Are the Liberals locked in to Abbott? I don't think so. Were he to make a momentous stuff-up they could decide that they need a new leader. I'm not sure that it would be Turnbull. He is more articulate than Abbott, but his world-view is closer to Labor's than to the core of the Liberal Party, notably on climate change, which is why he lost the top job in the first place.

If senior people in the government keep on leaving, Aboott won't have to do very much anyway. As someone has already noted, the government looks like sinking ship now.
Posted by Don Aitkin, Saturday, 2 February 2013 5:55:31 AM
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"It should be clear which days are for campaigning and which days are for governing'

Great Julia but you appear to be doing neither.

Alan Austin,
A similar question might be asked as to what do you make of the hypothesis that Ms Gillard announced the election now to stymie Wayne Swan's gathering of numbers so as to lock herself in as P.M.?

Call an election one day, see one of your mates charged with 150 fraud counts the next, then the next watch NSW implode at ICAC, then the next see two of your senior ministers resign. And one of them your supposed youngest and brightest. Jeez what a good start. I reckon we are going to watch the Australian Labor Party absolutely implode over the next 8 months. I reckon it won't be the coalition wishing the election cannot come soon enough. It'll be the Labor party.

What a gigantic farce.

Really Alan have you in all your experience ever seen the likes of this current absurdity?
Posted by imajulianutter, Saturday, 2 February 2013 9:14:19 AM
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Wow imajulianutter, Wayne Swan. Do you really believe that even the Labour party could be stupid enough to make him leader?

I watched it take him 2 years to learn how to read & present the press releases produced for him by his department, & minders. It looked for a long time he perhaps couldn't read.

It is hard to believe his IQ could struggle up to 85, even on a good day. Talk about the bottom of the barrel, hell, in any decent organisation, he would never have been put into the barrel, having been rejected as sub standard in the packing shed.
Posted by Hasbeen, Saturday, 2 February 2013 10:32:59 AM
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Keep it up 579, the more you squeal, the more it convinces people that Abbott is the right bloke.

Yes Don Aitkin, I can see your fervent hope.

The only chance the horrible Gillard has is Turnbull. If the libs were ever stupid enough to put that stuffed shirt in leadership, it would cost them so many votes, that Julia might just have a chance.

Far too many smart people can see Turnbull is another Rudd, & would be just as incompetent to all our detriment.

I don't know why labor don't recruit him. Bad as he is, he is head & shoulders above anything labor has. He would be a way of having Rudd for your leader, when you can't have Rudd.
Posted by Hasbeen, Saturday, 2 February 2013 11:06:35 AM
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Hasbeen,
on their record Wayne Swan would be their logical choice.Don't you agree.
lol.
Posted by imajulianutter, Saturday, 2 February 2013 12:00:18 PM
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One advantage of calling an early election is that it gives your entire front bench the opportunity to resign the lead up.
Posted by Cheryl, Saturday, 2 February 2013 1:35:08 PM
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It's funny to see Abbott throwing the switch from "aggressively negative" to "reassuringly positive" but it will be interesting to see how long it lasts before he reverts back to his true form.

Dragging out his wife and family as spokespersons to vouch for his new persona is as hollow and honest as his policies.

Until he faces up to real media scrutiny and stops avoiding certain media outlets who may be critical or just want clarification he will remain an unknown quantity.

Campaigning and photo-ops are one thing but detail is what has been lacking up until now and it's up to the media to bring both sides to account.
Posted by wobbles, Saturday, 2 February 2013 3:47:59 PM
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Tony has a lot of reinventing make-over work to do before addressing policy. He cannot escape like Howard did by simply delivering "headland" speeches and remaining a small target as there's too much time to kill before Sept 14.

He has to demonstrate he is not a "liar", a "bully", a "misogynist" etc. etc. by about mini-budget time when the media turns to policy analysis. That's going to be fun to watch as currently, googling "Abbott" with any of the words above, as just as three examples, can provides days of enjoyable articles and videos. I like this one that deals with the mantra of the great carbon tax "lie". Tony is not totally without scruples and would stop at selling his ar$e to gain power, but not his grandmother http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=K2fRMy5rxuM

Incidentally, I thought his make-up was at least as good as Julia's at the National Press Club. He must have taken tips from Warnie to achieve the Ken-doll glow, or perhaps he'd just had his prostate checked by a physician with a small digit (some use two, to get a second opinion).
Posted by Luciferase, Saturday, 2 February 2013 5:47:31 PM
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How can you lefties have the hide to talk about an Abbott make over.

The fool red head has put on a pair of horn rimed spectacles, trying to pretend she is some sort of intellectual.

It really is funny that all she has done is to manage to look like some one's girl Friday. Still who knows, with a bit more effort she just might manage to look like an executive assistant.

Nah, she'd never get her bum small enough for that.
Posted by Hasbeen, Saturday, 2 February 2013 7:45:25 PM
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Turnbull is the most palatable Liberal for the Left because he appears to them to be a moderate. His support of the Carbon Tax would probably cause him to lose most Liberal Party supporters and lose the election.

The problem is that Turnbull, like Rudd is not a Party man. He is interested in his own destiny which he believes is to be the leader of the country. He is intelligent and argues a point convincingly but has poor judgement and although not a complete narcissist like Rudd, is more engaged in personal rather than political ideals.
Posted by Atman, Sunday, 3 February 2013 10:42:25 AM
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I believe the announcement is a master stroke. It changes the political dynamics!
It makes people start to look at Mr Abbott as the alternative PM, rather than the official opposition Leader, and as Hasbeen observed, this bloke simply doesn't measure up, and should be relegated to the packing shed?
I mean even with a script, he ums and ahs his way through a political speech?
Moreover, once the may budget is released, Mr Abbott will come under increasing pressure, to release his costed policies, not the magic pudding promises he has produced thus far.
And that could prove problematic, along with the mantra, who do you trust!
The bloke/party who told us the Sunday roast would cost a $100.00, that Whyalla would be wiped off the map, that the coal industry would be destroyed; and that all of the power increases prior to the application of the carbon tax, were in fact the result of the carbon tax, rather than state politicians; and or, multinationals seeking to blame shift, gold plate or price gouge!?
I agree with other posters, who see Malcolm Turnbull as a more credible political leader!
And should the liberals want to not just win by a slim if manageable margin, [one hit wonder,] perhaps dependant on one or two independents, in order to govern; but rather, cement their position for several further elections?
Then someone who can, perhaps the Gazelle?
Will force a spill and the subsequent election of Malcolm, while there is yet still time.
Malcolm as a already known former and much more credible/acceptable leader/statesman, could conceivably turn a narrow win, into a veritable rout, or a train wreck election for Labour.
If everyone is as sick of politics and the joke some of the most high profile players have made of it; and or parliamentary traditions, they could do worse than emulate my example; and, put the current incumbent last of the ballot paper. Arguably, the only way to tell all politicians, a pox on both your houses!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Sunday, 3 February 2013 10:50:59 AM
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Rhrosty, much better to loose than be led by a peanut like Turnbull. Personally I think making him leader of the Libs would be the only chance Labor has of winning. The Labor lot want him, but would not vote for him, & the Libs can't stand him, & would not vote for him. The Katter party would actually get people in parliament.

What is it with lefties, that they can't see through a pretender? Turnbull as PM would make me almost as ashamed as I am with the red head.

He would be every bit as bad as Gillard, in that he would never have the best interests of genuine Ozzies at heart.
Posted by Hasbeen, Sunday, 3 February 2013 1:04:26 PM
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Hasbeen you have a terrible bias against women, wether it be red or purple. Katter is your man, Abbott is no-ones man. Turnbull is your only hope for the libs, and get rid of that dinosaur front bench. It's disgusting. Mal Brough is a Howard misfit, and should never have been chosen. But that is Abbott, he thinks he is Howard. The golden years, lets go back to prehistoric days. The only thing wrong with that is he is not Howard. To think like that, he doesn't have an identity, and nothing original.
Posted by 579, Sunday, 3 February 2013 1:33:26 PM
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Hasbeen,

When does the media comment on what Abbott is wearing. Gillard was specifically reported as wearing a "salmon coloured top" when inspecting the Queensland flood damage, as if that was somehow important.

It was OK for Howard to have his eyebrows trimmed and teeth capped but it's different for Gillard.

Tony can pose for the cameras in his oddly immaculate unused fire-fighting gear but that's OK too, just as Turnbull can be remembered for the elegant leather jacket he wore on Q & A.

Joe Hockey's makeover due to gastric band surgery seems to be off limits.

I suppose some people vote on the basis of style and others on substance but most vote out of self-interest.
Posted by wobbles, Sunday, 3 February 2013 1:50:32 PM
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My belief is that the long election campaign is in order to allow Gillard to keep trying on versions of the 'new Julia' in the hope that she can come up with one that people actually like. And I wish her luck with that, because she'll need it.
Posted by Jon J, Sunday, 3 February 2013 5:24:18 PM
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I think people are too quick to hate the person but accept the party. People hate Tony Abbott, yet he has been a very effective opposition leader. People ridicule the idea of him reinventing himself, but if he was prime minister I would expect someone to be different than when they were opposition. In the Australian political game it seems to be about who is in power and how many of their ideologically themed laws they can pass or oppose rather than all of parliament trying to help Australia. In terms of the game, Abbott as opposition leader for the past four years has been a masterstroke, keeping the pressure on government to justify everything to the point it self implodes. Howard was around for 11 years partly because the opposition could not lay a glove on them. Now is the time for Abbott to put on his prime minister hat, play the game and if his past efforts show anything,he will be a damn good prime minister, but he won't try to be successful as pm by remaning in opposition mode.
Posted by RandomGuy, Sunday, 3 February 2013 6:19:46 PM
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Wobbles: "When does the media comment on what Abbott is wearing".

Have you forgotten the "budgie smugglers" ?
Posted by Raycom, Sunday, 3 February 2013 8:52:57 PM
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Abbott has been a volunteer fire fighter and surf life saver for nearly 20 years, and has worked in other volunteer organisations. What has Juliar done? Nothing that I have heard of. All Juliar can do is appear for photo ops at the floods and fires. God forbid she should actually get her hands dirty.

I admire Turnbull as he is smart and business savy. However, his leadership of the coalition was far from stellar. He is very popular amongst labor voters, but not nearly as popular amongst the liberals as it was Abbott who reduced Labor to 72 seats at the last election.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 4 February 2013 3:23:45 AM
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Abbott’s power is awesome. Just the mention of his name is enough to throw the opposition into a frenzy of terror and doom.

He is endorsed and supported by his own side of politics who also revel in the abject terror he strikes into the Gillard camp. The more the government tries to destroy him the stronger they make him, how stupid is that?

Gillard meanwhile has a quick trip to the optician and makes a complete “spectacle” of herself as the new, new, really new Julia.
Posted by spindoc, Monday, 4 February 2013 9:18:03 AM
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Shadow Minister

Julia has bloody hands.
Posted by imajulianutter, Tuesday, 5 February 2013 3:00:16 PM
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The main myth that needs to be corrected is that of the Liberal Party "stability", which portrays Abbot as the overwhelming choice as leader, versus the marginal choice of Gillard by Labor. Lest we forget, Gillard won over Rudd in a 70/30 landslide.
History shows, after the extended "et tu Brute/Caesar" scenes in the Liberal Party showdown, Abbot won 42 to 41 after Joe Hockey flipped and an "informal" and an "absent" voter tilted the balance. Allowing the best will in the world, but viewing it through the lens of too many State and Local Government elections where those kind of votes are clearly engineered, it is difficult to see that the result was overwhelmingly an endorsement of the Leader of the Opposition.

This has not inhibited the Opposition in casting itself as a stable party. What they have done is to hide inner tensions under the covers more effectively than Labor. Of course, they haven't had to rule through a GFC and with a minority Government.,
Posted by rexationary, Tuesday, 5 February 2013 6:33:14 PM
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