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How unconventional oil changes the world : Comments
By James Stafford, published 14/12/2012Michael Levi from the Council on Foreign Relations thinks oil prices could drop much further, amongst other things.
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The market view of an economy might see all energy sources as being interchangable but from a physical and practical perspective that is far from being the case. Yes a transition could theoretically be made to other fuels but this will take enormous capital investment and a timeframe measured in decades and I see no indication, other than at the margins (a few hybrid cars here, a few CNG light trucks there), to suggest that the necessary actions are being taken. And of course in switching the second and third order impacts of attempting such a transition also need to be considered.
I have to go so can't answer your specific questions but I will say that:
a. an industrial civilisation of the type we have now can't be powered by renenwable energy
b. shale oil/gas will no doubt be produced for a long time to come but not at rates that will offset the decline of conventional oil and gas production
c. as thermodynamics and not the market ultimately dictate energy supply, and we have exploited the easiest to exploit energy sources first; over the next 100 years, regardless of technological advances, we will need to get by with less energy. This is my whole point, we need to learn to get by with using less energy and other resources. We can do that and still live in reasonable comfort, different lifestyles yes, but that is far from being the end of the world! The crux of the problem is that our current economic system only works if consume ever more energy and resources.