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The Forum > Article Comments > Will Iran block the Hormuz Strait > Comments

Will Iran block the Hormuz Strait : Comments

By Ali Omidi, published 21/12/2011

It could be quite legal for Iran to block the Straits of Hormuz, blocking 40 percent of oil supplies.

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No matter what one's opinion is of Iran it is a fully recognized sovereign state with a seat in the United Nations and as such should be left to conduct its own policies in peace.

The USA, Britain, France and Israel are virtually at war with Iran with absolutely no justification. These four countries all posses nuclear weapons. Their excuse for their belligerent behavior is that their "intelligence" agencies prove beyond a doubt that Iran is pursuing the technology to build its own nuclear weapons.

What about the rouge state of Israel, it has some 200 nuclear warheads and unlike Iran it does not allow its nuclear activity to be monitored. Why is the attention on a state where there is no proof that it aims to acquire nuclear weapons?

The West are playing a dangerous game with Iran who is almost completely surrounded by US troops and USA client states. A covert war has already commenced and a proxy war has already been waged for some time. Iran has not fired a single bullet in the USA, Britain, France or Israel and not a single soldier has set foot in these countries but that isn't the case at all with the West.

If Iran chose to close the Hormuz Strait which country could blame it? The duty of the leaders of a sovereign state is to protect the well being of its civilians and defend it from a hypocritical, cynical, blood thirsty enemy in any way that it sees fit.

The world does not need more irresponsible Western adventures in the Middle East where it has already destroyed Iraq, has invaded and continues to make war and destroy Afghanistan, has indiscriminately attacked Pakistan killing many of its civilians. The Arab world is in turmoil which could result in an explosion the likes of which the world has never seen. The West doesn't understand the Arab Middle East as all its experts are either American Jews or Zionist Israelis and as such should leave it alone. Leave Iran alone.
Posted by Ulis, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 9:49:37 AM
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Dear Ali, Unfortunately you were off to a bad start by basing your article on comments from Seumus Milne in the Guardian? Is this the same Guardian that brought us..., Oh never mind.

So the “stealth war against Iran has already begun”. Where on earth has the Guardian been for the past 20 years? Oh, I forgot, planet Guardian.

Now that you seem willing to play a little catch up and do some research you will no doubt come to realize that Iran will continue to raise “potential conflict” issues for you and the rest of western progressive media to play with. Meanwhile the Iranians will do absolutely nothing in the Gulf that will put at risk every asset they have there. Should the Yanks decide that regardless of conventions, pacts, articles or obligations, those assets need to be taken out, they will evaporate overnight.
Posted by spindoc, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 11:16:00 AM
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The Iranians know full well what will happen if they try to block the Hormuz straits.They value their wellbeing and wealth too much to play stupid games like one-upmanship with lethal weapons. It'll be the next Muslim state to be reduced to rubble.All their scientists know full the catastrophic consequences. It wont happen. That monkey with the longest tale will be stopped by its own generals and scientists. Why would they want to lose?

socratease
Posted by socratease, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 12:41:18 PM
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It wouldn't be legal. Access to the strait is controlled by Saudi and Iran. Those travelling on the Saudi side could piracy if ships were stopped, with consequences for Iran incl military retaliation.

All the USA needs to do is float an aircraft carrier up the strait to remove the blockage.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 5:55:31 PM
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Good article,
I cannot understand the stance of the Western nations including Australia against Iran. They clearly pose no threat to anyone. They have invaded their neighbours nor threatened to do so. If they did want nuclear weapons, it would not be surprising, given that Israel and the US threaten it with military action on an almost daily basis. If it had a nuclear weapon then noone would risk invading it.
It seems that the US is just addicted to war. If only AUstralia would stop following blindly after them into every blood bath they create.
Posted by Rhys Jones, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 9:11:42 PM
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>>It could be quite legal for Iran to block the Straits of Hormuz, blocking 40 percent of oil supplies.>>

And also blocking most of Iran's exports.

The US Navy would force the straits open again but Iran would be reduced to penury.

It must also be assumed that the US and its allies have contingency plans in case the Iranians really are rash enough to attempt anything so foolish. They will be watching the Iranians like hawks and would react at the mere hint that Iran was about to attempt blocking the straits. I doubt the Iranians would get very far.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 10:39:02 PM
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Many of the comments include various scenarios of Iran being pulverized the second that the USA believe that it is Iran's intention to block the Hormuz Strait. Iran would be bombarded back to the Middle Ages by the USA, UK and French armed forces with no doubt some covert assistance from Israel.

What these writers do not take into consideration is the reaction of Russia and China. Iran has close relations with both these countries and while China and Russia have voted with the West for sanctions against Iran on the UN Security Council it is an entirely different matter to belligerent acts of war.

Iran today is practically being held to siege which in itself is an act of war and even though this siege has the blessing of the UN Security Council it is no less an act of war.

The West would be wise not to underestimate Iran, it fought a long though inconclusive war that was a result of Iraq's invasion (1980-1988). Iraq had the unwavering support both military and politically of the USA, its Western allies and US client states: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, The Emirates, Egypt and Jordan.

Russia and China have recently watered down the sanctions that the West have placed on Syria and the Arab League plan has been effectively scuttled even though Assad has been forced to accept observers he has managed to have all sanctions, lifted. Bashar Al Assad has been given no more than a slap on the wrist. And Secretary of State Clinton has failed miserably in her aim to put a wedge between Syria and Iran.

It isn't in the interest of either China or Russia to accept that the USA have total hegemony of the Middle East and they will do what they need to do to prevent it.

It would be foolish indeed to believe that a war against Iran would be a walk in the park for the Western powers that's what they thought Iraq would be and Iraq was many times weaker than Iran is today.
Posted by Ulis, Thursday, 22 December 2011 11:21:26 AM
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Obviously a narrow strait like this would be easy to blockade.
However I would draw attention to the tanker driver strike in the UK
a few years back.
In three days the supermarkets were virtually stripped bare.

It would probably take a week or two before service stations were
affected and then another week before food ran short, then a couple of
weeks before starvation set in.
Once people realised the implications those timescales would be shortened.

Even though the gulf is the source of only about 20% of world supply
the effect would be the same as if it was very much more.
Faced with mass starvation in Europe, Nth America and most other parts
of the world there are not many choices.
How would China react to its contracted supply being cut off ?

How long after that before Iran was a sheet of glass ?

It is not a realistic path for Iran.
Perhaps they think Allah will protect them, and that is where the worry should be.
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 8:10:32 AM
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Well we may soon discover whether Iran is able to block the Straits of Hormuz.

Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/world/middleeast/iran-threatens-to-block-oil-route-if-embargo-is-imposed.html

>>WASHINGTON — A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

[...]

Apparently fearful of the expanded sanctions’ possible impact on the already-stressed economy of Iran, the world’s third-largest energy exporter, Mr. Rahimi said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Iran’s official news agency. Iran just began a 10-day naval exercise in the area.

In recent interviews, Obama administration officials have said that the United States has developed a plan to keep the strait open in the event of a crisis. ....>>>
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 2:18:50 PM
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Faced with mass starvation in many parts of the world, including
Australia, how long before drastic action was inevitable do you think ?
Can you imagine the US and Europe standing by and sucking their
thumbs while their populations went hungry ?
Will China and Japan likewise do nothing ?
Japan needs four 2 Million barrel tankers to arrive in Japan each day.

If you think my mention of Australia is far fetched think of this;
We produce about 40% of the oil we use.
We do not refine petrol in eastern Australia.
I think Kiwana refinery in WA does.
Diesel would be in very short supply.
All food is distributed using diesel.
All food is produced using diesel.
Coal is mined using diesel.
If electricity supply was interrupted many would be unemployed.

Do you still think a blockade is an option for a sane government ?
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 3:05:36 PM
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Bazz,

(1) I doubt the Iranians are crazy enough to attempt a blockade of the Straits.

(2) If perchance they try it I think the US Navy will re-open the Straits in a matter of days if not hours

(3) Russia and China may huff and puff in public but will do nothing. Quietly China will be grateful that the Americans are keeping the oil flowing.

(4) The WORST CASE scenario is a supply hiccup lasting at MOST a week.

(5) Ulis is fantasizing.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 8:32:02 PM
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Yes Steven, I think you would have to be correct, it would only
be in effect for a couple of days.
What I have not done is look at some charts of the area.
There could be draft choke points,
There are are two designated shipping channels, one in, one out.
A couple or three large loaded tankers sunk at a choke point might be possible.
How long did it take to clear the Suez canal ?
I am sure the Iranians have thought of all that as no doubt have the
US Navy et al.
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 9:29:49 PM
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It is asserted by many that the shooting down of Iran Air flight 655 by the Guided Missile Crusier USS Vincennes with the loss of 290 civilians and crew convinced the Ayatollah Khomeini to end the war with Iraq, a war that had severely impacted on passage of shipping through the straits, and indeed it finished a month later.

He was said to have remarked that if the US were capable of this act then they were to be greatly feared and as they were supplying Saddam Hussein with weapons and intelligence victory was not possible. Why would the Iranians now fear the US any less than before?
Posted by csteele, Wednesday, 28 December 2011 10:59:29 PM
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Hi Bazz

The Straits are around 25 miles wide. However there are only two dredged shipping channels. Blocking both of these would block the Straits.

However:

(1) 75-80% of the world's oil supply does NOT pass through the Straits. Presumably pumping at other sites could, for a price, be increased on a temporary basis. Thus even in the worst case of a total blockage lasting weeks the world would still get over 80% of its oil supply while the channels were cleared. It might be unpleasant for a while but it would not be the end of civilisation.

(2) However I doubt Iran would be able to block both channels. The US is monitoring Iranian activity in the region in real time so Iran would not have the advantage of surprise. Even a hint of an attempt to block a channel would provoke a fierce US response. It would be "shock and awe" on steroids.

(3) Perhaps, most important, while the world would be able to limp on with 80% of normal supply, practically 100% of Iran's oil exports would be blocked. Given the dependence of Iran on oil exports this would be a national catastrophe. It would be tantamount to regime suicide.

csteel:

The leaders of the Iranian regime are not stupid. However much they may bluster in public I doubt they would be so foolish as to give the US a casus belli.

Of course Iran could avert all this unpleasantness by opening up its (expensive) uranium enrichment program to inspection or, better, abandoning it entirely. The money saved could be spent on projects that facilitate economic development in what is actually quite a poor country.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Thursday, 29 December 2011 3:01:05 PM
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As I said previously, the strait is not entirely in Iranian waters, and blocking it would be an act of war.

With the US 5th fleet stationed at Bahrain a couple of 100k away, the retribution would be swift, and instead of facing a partial embargo, it could end up with a total blockade. Unless the Iranians were suicidal this is just bluster.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Friday, 30 December 2011 1:04:37 PM
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Steven,
I agree, it is most likely bluff, but it is a very dangerous bluff.
The repercussions from even a short blockade would push prices up so
far that Europe & the Euro would probably immediately go into a severe recession.
20% reduction in supply should not matter so much but as seems likely
there is no slack in the system to take up even a small percentage of
the 20%. There is already a severe shortage of diesel in Asia and the
Tapis price is $117 a barrel last time I looked.
The demand by Japan alone on Tapis could mean $150-$170 a barrel which
may well put Australia into recession.
The price plus a cut in supply from the Tapis market of who knows how
much would give our treasurer Wayne Swann plenty of excuses.

A blockade may be a possibility if the suicide syndrome is reality in the Iranian government.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 30 December 2011 1:51:12 PM
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Bazz,

In the unlikely event that Iran tried blocking the Straits and in the HIGHLY unlikely event that they succeeded in blocking it for a significant period – say longer than a week – then yes the world would be plunged into a severe recession.

But we'd come out of it quite quickly once the flow of oil was resumed. On the other hand it would be suicide for Iran. Would the Americans even allow Iranian oil through the Straits once they'd cleared it? My guess is they would – at a price, a very high price.

I doubt the regime could survive the fallout from blocking the Straits.

On the other hand, if Iran does have what you call "suicide syndrome" what happens if they get nukes? That could trigger something worse than a "mere" recession.

As it happens the Israelis seem to have destroyed Assad's nuclear ambitions. Imagine if highly unstable Syria was a nuclear armed state
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Friday, 30 December 2011 2:26:29 PM
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Steven,
I had a look at the chart for the strait and outside the designated
channels part loaded tankers could probably get through.
So even if they sank some tankers in the channels oil could still get
through. They could pump from one to the other once outside, then the
empty one could go back in.
However like all things the insurance companies make the rules and they
may make the gulf a no no.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 30 December 2011 3:07:08 PM
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Iran Blinks;
Obama has signed into law the restrictions on Iran.
Iran has asked the EU commission to call a meeting of Russia, China,
France, Britain and US.

The IAEA has published its reasons for concern about Iran's nuclear program.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15648166
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 1 January 2012 9:49:16 AM
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To understand what is really going on here you need to remember that the regime is both inept and corrupt.

See for example:

Iran Regime Profiting From Currency Decline, U.S. Treasury Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/u-s-says-iran-elite-profiting-from-currency-plunge-triggered-by-sanctions.html

>>The Obama administration is accusing the elite of Iran’s regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of profiting “on the back of the average Iranian” as the nation’s currency plunges under pressure from international sanctions.

The new allegation coincides with the decline in the market value of the Iranian rial, which has dropped about 15 percent against the dollar in the past five weeks and 35 percent since March, according to Tehran’s independent Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper. The 39 percent difference between the central bank’s official rate and market rates on Dec. 21 was the largest in almost two decades, economists in Tehran and Washington said in interviews.

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen said the gap between the two rates has provided an arbitrage opportunity exploited by officials and businesses affiliated with the IRGC, the elite military arm that’s under international sanctions for suspected nuclear weapons work and terrorism. They are among regime elements able to obtain foreign currency at the favorable official exchange rate and sell it for a profit in exchange bureaus at the market rate, he told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in written testimony Dec. 1.>>

Do these crooks appear suicidal to you?

Or do they look like people who want to keep their scames going for as long as possible?
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Sunday, 1 January 2012 10:03:35 AM
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