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The Forum > Article Comments > East Timor's recalcitrant hero > Comments

East Timor's recalcitrant hero : Comments

By Peter Coates, published 21/6/2010

East Timor to our very near north has a growing association with China - a rising power with strategic aspirations in our region.

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I wonder how the Indonesian government would view a growing Chinese naval presence in East Timor.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Monday, 21 June 2010 9:01:33 AM
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Woodside is wise in not wanting to spend money on facilities in East Timor given the unreliability of it's government.This is apart from the obvious saving in pipeline infrastructure.

Timor will still get substantial royalties from the production.How these would be spent is up to the government.My suspicion is that a lot of the money would either be wasted or get into the hands of a corrupt few.
I doubt if the Chinese will have any more luck in dealing with the Timorese than Australia has.Any military expansion by the Chinese into Timor has to be dealt with by the Australian and possibly the Indonesian military.There are plenty of other near failed states in the SW Pacific where the Chinese can easily get a foothold if they think that is in their interests.

Interesting times!
Posted by Manorina, Monday, 21 June 2010 9:04:14 AM
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Too many assumptions in the article and not enough examination of facts. There is a proliferation of views about the politics of Fretilin which was never 'Maoist' and certainly not Communist.
A few leaders were influenced by revolutionary ideology but Fretilin's stated aims were explicitly democratically phrased.

In the light of evidence that has come to light during the trial of Angelita Pires, both Gusmao and Horta, who became the beneficaries of the 2006 destabilisation of the elected ALkatiri Government can hardly be described as 'recalcitrant heroes'

Reinado stated implicitly in recorded interviews that it was Gusmao who 'made' him and the evidence presented to Angelitas trial leaves no doubt that Reinado was visiting Horta's compound on invitation and was executed. The alleged attack on Gusmao has also raised questions as to whether or not it was staged to support the 'Coup' theory.

Angelita is understood to be preparing to sue Horta for his accusations without evidence that she was behind a 'coup' and his actions in having a private meeting with Salshina following his surrender give grounds to suspect a conspiracy.

Gusmao's acceptance by Indonesia as a moderate after the 6 months ceasefire where his visits to all regions to promote Autonomy was facilitated by the TNI puts his dedication to Independence into question.

The circumstances surrounding the execution of Nicolau Lobato and the more militant elements of Fretilin are also questions requiring investigation as the true history of the struggle is chronicled by the participants.

As for the sale of two Patrol Boats and training of crews by China; I wonder why Australia disposed of our older vessels as gifts to Indonesia instead of assessing East Timor's needs to patrol their waters to deter illegal fishing and illegal activities .
Posted by maracas1, Monday, 21 June 2010 12:49:41 PM
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The whole East Timor saga has been shaded in confusion the whole time. It is always difficult to know who is write and wrong in these situations. Australia's diplomatic handling of East Timor after their independence was a bit patronising so we shouldn't be surprised that they are a bit sheepish with us.
As for china's regional military intentions, if someone has some credible links they can give me on this that would be great as i can only find paranoid banter with no substance that China wants to take over. History doesn't really support this idea and i don't feel any great threat from China. They have been slowly reforming their systems. It is our impatients with the pace of change that seems to be the complaint, but after what happened to the Soviet Union is it any wonder they wish to keep a tight hand on the wheel.
Posted by nairbe, Monday, 21 June 2010 4:44:46 PM
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Nairbe.... right and wrong ? :) oh oh.... ur kidding right ?

At this level of "international interest" the only 'right' is that which brings the most benefit to national 'interest'....

In Australia's case, I think the 'liberation' was as much about our share of the Timor Shelf oil, and Indonesia's annexation was probably about that too.. along with a healthy dose of well justified anti Chinese/communist paranoia.

Now.. with these overtures from China..(with the Timorize share of oil in mind ..why else?)... history is confirming the Indonesian 'view' of things Timorize. (but not their methods)

OH won't it be FUN.... I mean..hilariously uproariously funny..when Australia finds itself caught between our very very strong trading relationship with China..(one on which our economy depends more than any other) and the need to 'nudge China' back a bit from Timor!

I can't wait for the political double talk to come out of THIS one :)

*wanders off to dig his spud patch*....
Posted by ALGOREisRICH, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 6:33:39 AM
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ALGOREisRICH,
Yes must agree with you there. The strange wedge positions we find ourselves in because our greed over rules our morales would be very funny if they were not so serious. I am sure that their will be much back flipping and postering to be done. Let's hope at that time the US isn't desperate to hold on to it's power and start something they can not stop.
What i meant with history is that beside border and close regional issues (such as Tibet), the Chinese don't have a history of conquest over the known world. Again i maybe corrected on this but one feels that if they had wanted, Korea could have continued until the allies lost interest and given in.
Certainly the oil and gas rights to the Timor sea are of central importance in any discussion to do with Timor, Indonesia and regional stability but we need to be careful about creating the enemy when we don't need to. OOW i sound like a diplomat sorry.
Posted by nairbe, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 8:10:50 AM
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maracas1

Firstly I'd like to thank you for your input, which I always hope for.

Secondly. I wrote the article contrasting Gusmao's pre 1999 career with the main bilateral issues that are on his watch in 2010 - which are Woodside's LPG plant siting and the Chinese patrol boats.

You might be trying to steer the debate to Alkatiri, Pires and Reinado, but aren't they passé now?

Your claim that Fretilin was not communist is false.

Fretilin main fighting arm until the mid 1980s was its openly Maoist-Communist subset, Falantil. All this is admitted, to his credit, by Xanana Gusmao.

In 1975 Fretilin was a movement on the run. Some stayed in East Timor to fight, like Gusmao while others fled abroard. They escaped with their lives to places that would harbour them while most East Timorese did not have a choice of getting out.

Alkatiri chose communist Mozambique http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mari_Alkatiri after fleeing until 1998. Note Mozambique's coat of arms here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Mozambique.

Alkatiri's choice of domicile was dominated by Marxist-Leninist FRELIMO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FRELIMO which established a Soviet aligned one party state. Its not coincidental that Fretilin has a sense of entitlement that it alone should rule East Timor.

Fretilin is probably frustrated that it was Soviet aligned but the Soviets let it down by supplying nothing from 1975 until 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.

It seems that former Maoist aligned elements (including Gusmao) have the jump on Fretilin yet again. They (the non-Fretilin government of East Timor) are dealing to their advantage with the Maoist Chinese in East Timor's national interest.

My problem is that all this is definitely not in Australia's national interests. Australia's main interests in East Timor's are of course:

- economic (oil/gas ownership and profits);

- strategic (keeping non-western countries out – especially China); and,

- humanitarian/maintaining law and order (because people like Alkatiri couldn't make their people safe).

But I think Ramos Horta and Gusmao (with some assistance from mana Kirsty) are better than past leaders.

Regards

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 12:27:29 PM
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Pete i have no argument about the communist leanings of Fretilin, being a communist freedom fighter was after all the in thing during most of the 20th century. There is also the issue of who is prepared to offer support without patronising them. We truly do continue to suffer from the arrogant white man attitude in this country. I really don't think we get what racism is and how it affects others. After all we elected John Howard term after term and there is no question how insecure he was about any non white anglo nations. We forgive our sports stars for racist comments because they have so much to offer.
So i return to my earlier question, can you please supply me with some credible links that show me the impending danger of the emerging China. Do we actually think they will take over the asia/pacific like the Japanese tried to do in WW2 or will they simply go with the American model of disrupting and manipulating governments and markets to suit themselves. Let's not make an enemy out of paranoia.
Posted by nairbe, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 1:07:19 PM
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Hi nairbe

maracas is the person with the "argument about the communist leanings of Fretilin". I neglected to say to him that the Maoist model can be useful for insurgents. If they are nationalists that may be fine but if they turn out to be tools of great powers (like China and Russia) then they are cheating their own poeple.

I agree that we could do even more for East Timor but I don't agree with you "white, arrogance" thesis. If East Timorese were white they would still receive the massive aid and liberation we gave them.

Who's talking "John Howard" or "sports stars"? We're talking about Chinese patrol boats in East Timor now.

Re "Do we actually think they will take over the asia/pacific like the Japanese tried to do in WW2"

I resent how you labour my article with your own simplistic straw men. I'm talking about a complex multi-faceted Chinese strategy toward East Timor which does include military aid (the patrol boats). Read the the Loro Horta links I provided - please.

Re: "can you please supply me with some credible links that show me the impending danger of the emerging China."

I'm not attempting to illuminate China's world strategy just China's relations with East Timor.

While some Russian comrades (GRU's Sixth Directorate - but don't tell anybody...) have access to recent Top Secret internal strategy papers of the Chinese Central Committee, concerning the Asia Pacific (which do answer your question precisely), I cannot and will not pass them to you. Sorry :)

In the meantime this may be useful https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/bitstream/handle/10220/4383/RSIS-WORKPAPER_103.pdf;jsessionid=E8D112130CB8F74E378936CE31BC1CDA?sequence=1

Regards

Pete
(of "Nuclear Weapons for Australia?" http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/ )
Posted by plantagenet, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 3:15:19 PM
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Hi Pete,
Sorry for any mistake over maracas, not intended.
Thanks for the link, and i genuinely mean that. It is hard to find any good research on these issues.
The military buildup and modernisation of the Chinese military is fairly routine for an emerging economic power such as China particularly given the rational offered by the author. Of greater concern would be the reactive military buildup in the region by much more unstable and unpredictable governments. This is especially problematic when a sudden change of government could see these assets fall into hostile hands. It certainly gives me much to consider and reassess, thanks.
I recognise you offence to my inference about white Australian attitudes. These always create much animosity toward me. I feel John and sports stars have much to do with it. They are evidence of our community attitude and therefore perception of current events. We question little the massive arms spending and presence of the US globally over the last ten years and justify it by identifying the need due to terrorist threat. Should other countries such as China not see this as a potential threat to their security and trade interests and security both regionally and globally.
I know i have got off subject. The end is that we can have more effect and influence in Timor if we deal more openly and less patronisingly with their government. Yes we put a lot of time, money and effort into Timor but we also seem to want a lot out of it
Posted by nairbe, Tuesday, 22 June 2010 6:03:01 PM
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Pete,
You have handled the truth quite carelessly in the picture you painted of Mari ALkatiri.Go back and read your own reference in Wikipedia and you will learn he did not flee East Timor whilst the Recalcitrant hero, Gusmao remained.

You will learn he was SENT out along with others to establish an external mission. These included Rogerio Lobato, Abilio Araujo, Rocque Rodriguez,Ramos Horta, Jose luis Guterres. I had the pleasure of hosting them as they came through Darwin, providing them with accommodation without which they could not obtain a Visa due to the lack of housing immediately after Cyclone Tracy.

I also provided telephone facilities, linking their VJY Darwin messages with appropriate people either in New York, Maputo or Lisbon.
It may not have occurred to you that apart from the fact Mari Alkatiri had a history of residence and study in Mozambique, it was a prior colony of Portugal where Portuguese was the lingua Franca and both ex colonies were in much the same boat, striving for Independence.

I reiterate; Fretilin were not Communist, although their movement for Independence was supported by the Communist Party of Australia.
They had no alternative supporters because Ramos Horta's meetings with the Australian Government had fallen on deaf ears following the Kerr coup of the Whitlam Government placing Malcolm Fraser as P.M. who instructed the Dili radio link with VJY Darwin to close on Xmas Day 1975 and did his best to stop unlicenced radio contact by siezing two Radio opoerations.

Remember,Gerald Ford and Henry Kissinger had given Soeharto the green light to invade on the eve of their departure asking that it be executed quickly. Australia was quick to grant de jure recognition in order to obtain a good deal on boundaries which have since been disputed by East Timor.
Posted by maracas1, Wednesday, 23 June 2010 1:42:58 AM
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Part 2

I make no secret of my support for Fretilin. I witnessed the massive support they received from the Maubere majority populace whilst I was there on the occasion of the first Anniversary of the Founding of Fretilin on 20th May 1975.

On the other hand I continue to deplore the corruption that Gusmao has presided over and the unconstitutional actions of Horta.
You could do well to study the evidence given in the Pires trial instead of writing it off.

Of course you can expect East Timor to move closer to the Socialist world because they already know that's where their real friends are.
500 Cuban Doctors in East Timor and a thousand Timmorese studying Medicine in Havana.
Australia on the other hand has only displayed a grossly mercenary attitude to this fledgling democracy by grabbing resources which rightly belong to East Timor
Posted by maracas1, Wednesday, 23 June 2010 1:45:55 AM
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maracas1

Its times like these that I really appreciate being lump-summed early out of government - allowing me to talk "in clear".

From our talks over the last 4 years I recognised early on that you'd been part of the action and thinking behind Fretilin. You care about people and help them for no pay. This is very impressive, even if we've disagreed most of the time.

On Fretilin and Alkatiri yes I did know of the Portuguese speaking connection: East Timor/Angola/Macau/Mozambique. I was being tendentious about communist Fretilin even if I add:

http://timortruth.com/articles/FRETILIN_chronology_1970_to_2002.pdf refering to Fretilin's "Central Committee", "Plenary Session" and "cadres" all quite mainstream communist stuff. Fretilin's "Revolutionary Council of National Resistance" has a certain ring.

CNRT may be biaised but still http://cnrt-timor.org/news/2007-06-25b.php "With Fretilin receiving worldwide support and funding from communist parties around the globe..."

This one is probably fairer http://www.pcp.pt/en/list-foreign-delegations-avante-festival - notice Fretilin, buddies and the host.

However, for balance, looks like Gusmao did indeed dance with the devil http://www.laohamutuk.org/Bulletin/2005/Apr/bulletinv6n1.html "The second change was the decision to have relations with the TNI (Indonesian National Army) leaders. As a strategy for negotiating a ceasefire, Xanana also negotiated with the leaders of the TNI, such as [Colonel] Gatot Purwanto, {General] William da Costa and [General] Moerdani/Murdani [Butcher of East Timor (including Balibo)]" http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search/label/BALIBO . But is this a statesmanlike compromise? treason? or somewhere in between?

I don't really care how if Fretilin was communist. Its mainly how accommodating it might be to China's strategic goals in East Timor which might initially be a slow buildup of Chinese naval infrastructure then Chinese improvements to Dili airport in order to host (Chinese donated) trainer aircraft for East Timor's air force it has to have.

Regarding my canonisation of Gusmao - I've been trying a little "push praising" (comes from push polling) strategy by saying what innate goodness is expected of him; that he may owe his life to US intervention; and he has personal ties to Oz. Hopefully he may get the point a tad.

MORE TO FOLLOW
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 23 June 2010 1:13:32 PM
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PART TWO to maracas1:

So it probably doesn't matter to Australia anymore if Gusmao/Ramos-Horta stays on or if Fretilin returns to power, just who is more willing to slow down or stop Chinese strategic infiltration into East Timor. China out, I think, is in Australia's interests though not perhaps, East Timor's.

Re:

"Malcolm Fraser as P.M. who instructed the Dili radio link with VJY Darwin to close on Xmas Day 1975 and did his best to stop unlicenced radio contact by siezing two Radio opoerations."

Five days ago I wrote on my website http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/06/east-timor-history-fretilins-rebel.html that I hoped a certain "Maracas" could advise how the Australian government clamped down on reception of the rebel radio signals here in Australia. Then four days ago I deleted reference to "Maracas". Don't know if you noticed – just great minds thinking alike? :)

Significantly - here's the CACHE of 5+ days ago that I couldn't have changed in the last few days http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IkFM-Zymyz8J:gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/06/east-timor-history-fretilins-rebel.html+%22maracas%22+Fretilin&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk just Control F "maracas" . Great minds ! :)

Your advice, even if (usually) contrary, is really important.

Thanks

Pete
..........................

Hi nairbe

Sorry for jumping on you (in tone). I didn't realise you were sincere because I'm more used to facetiousness on many forums.

On links, my pleasure, I'm full of them.

Yes China's military buildup is important because China is geographically closer to Oz (than the US) - so we might one day be consigned to China's strategic backyard by a bought-off US.

I'm not too offended by "white Australian" as even many aid people in East Timor have a slightly condescending parent-to-child attitude to East Timorese, let alone Aussie soldier attitudes. Height differences also contribute.

As Loro Horta pointed out http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0972007.pdf the Chinese are making a big impression on the ET government considering the smaller amount (than Australia) China is spending. Partly this may be tact and good diplomacy but also ET's traditional leftist (OK, not communist) leanings. China knows its on a good wicket.

Regards

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 23 June 2010 1:45:29 PM
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EAST TIMOR - CHINA'S WEST PAPUA?

While East Timorese may one day find they are an ethnic minority in their own land China will have provided military aid to East Timor with no strings attached... Increasing numbers of Chinese military personnel and economic immigrants will settle in East Timor.

Australia's appeasement policy towards China will not alter this dynamic.

So here is an article that is on East Timor's Defence Secretary's (Minister's) Julio Tomas Pinto's website http://www.juliotomaspinto.com/publication/1-julio-pinto-news/85-chinatimor-leste-pledge-closer-military-co-op.html :

"China,Timor-Leste pledge closer military co-op
Friday, 07 May 2010 11:08 Julio Pinto News

Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (2nd R) meets with Timor-Leste's Secretary of State for Defense Julio Tomas Pinto in Beijing, China, on March 30, 2010. (Xinhua/Ding Lin)BEIJING, March 30 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie met here with Timor-Leste's Secretary of State for Defense, Julio Tomas Pinto, here on Tuesday.

Liang said China will make joint efforts with Timor-Leste to push forward bilateral military exchanges and cooperation. In recent years, bilateral cooperation had been carried out in areas including politics, economy and trade, energy, public health and military, and the two armed forces also conducted friendly cooperation through personnel training and exchange visits, Liang said."

Calling East Timor a future Chinese staging base to pressure Australia base or stationary aircraft carrier is of course ridiculous. Doesn't happen in Southeast Asia this side of historical parallels:

- massive US Bases in the Philippines (Clark and Subic Bay) (now closed)

- massive Russian Naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-82481113.html
"By the terms of this [secret] agreement, the Soviet Union was granted access to Cam Ranh Bay [from 1978] until 2004. "

China, unlike all major powers in history, does not need overseas air or naval bases or more land to expand its population.

We need not worry until someone important tells us that it is too late.

Just like West Papua has been steadily Indonesianized through an assistd influx of ethnic Indonesians the East Timorese will one day find themselves an ethnic minority in their own land.

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 25 June 2010 1:19:14 AM
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Just one more observation about China's progress in East Timor.

I'm specifically interested in East Timor - a place where much influence has been rapidly ceded to China. China's progress in the entire Asia-Pacific is more glacial, so less easy to discern.

Under Rudd's pro China appeasement policies I think military experts (uniformed and public servants as well as government funded academic/think tanks) were quietly directed to not mention the March 2010 China-East Timor Defence Co-Operation Agreement (a near treaty for East Timor). It was certainly news to me.

Subordinates to Rudd could not be seen to be alarmist in the face of Rudd's micro-management of defence and foreign policy. Mere publication of the 2009 Defence White Paper has not amounted to a tangible counter to Australia bending over backwards to China.

As those 2 patrol boats constitute East Timor's navy and because they are also defacto units of the Chinese Navy the (near) treaty is quite significant so far.

I need to find out what it says/implies about harbour and airport improvements as well as possible future Chinese sold/donated aircraft and training for East Timor's airforce to be. It is possible that the focus might not be on crowded troublesome Dili but Baucau a site more fitting for a new harbour and certainly an airport that can take military aircraft:

Baucau is the second-largest city in East Timor, after Dili 122 km away....Six km from Baucau lies Cakung Airport which has what is currently the country's longest airport runway..." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baucau

Five km downhill from Baucau is Osolata, once Baucau's port - now with outrigger canoes drawn up on the beach. http://worldpics.com.au/Asia/EastTimor/baucau.html The port, while idyllic, obviously needs work to meet the standards of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PLA_Navy ;)

Sorry to my aid friends for this geo-strategic look at East Timor and its beloved Xanana. They love East Timor dearly - and so, usually, do I.

Pete
(http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/ now called "China's Rolling Nuptials")
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 30 June 2010 12:32:36 AM
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